Prices for wheat continue to rise, with over 97 million tons of grain harvested in Russia, the quality of grain is higher than last year.

During the reporting week from 06.09.24 to 13.09.24, global wheat prices continued to rise. The prices were as follows:

• Red winter wheat on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT, ZW) rose to 594.75 cents/bushel (+7.50%);
• Red winter wheat on the Kansas City Board of Trade (KCBT, KE) increased to 600.00 cents/bushel (+5.31%);
• Red spring wheat on the Minneapolis Grain Exchange (MGE, MWE) grew to 635.50 cents/bushel (+8.59%);

The contract price for corn on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT, ZC) reached 413.25 cents/bushel (+7.69%). The price of rice on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT, ZR) rose to $15.49/cwt (+1.24%).

Indicative export prices (FOB Black Sea):

• wheat increased to $214.30/ton (+0.09%);
• barley decreased to $181.30/ton (-0.33%);
• corn fell to $190.00/ton (-1.96%);

The wheat price index (CPT Novorossiysk) reached 16774 rubles/ton (+1.12%).

Internal purchase prices for 4th class wheat with 12.5% protein at port elevators of the Black and Azov Seas for the reporting period are as follows:

• Azov – 14200 (0) rubles/ton
• Novorossiysk – 17550 (+350) rubles/ton
• Rostov-on-Don – 14400 (0) rubles/ton
• Taman – 16200 (0) rubles/ton

GRAIN MARKET NEWS

As of September 11, over 97 million tons of grain have been harvested in Russia, including 72 million tons of wheat. 70% of grain fields have already been threshed. The quality of grain is significantly higher than last year, according to the Ministry of Agriculture.

Winter crops are successfully grown in almost all regions of Russia. Around 5.5 million hectares have been sown. The total sown area of winter crops is planned to be around 20 million hectares this year.

On September 13, the Bank of Russia's Board of Directors decided to raise the key rate by 100 basis points to 19.00% annually.

Due to abundant rainfall and high soil moisture, a state of emergency in agriculture has been declared in the Novosibirsk and Kemerovo regions, as well as extended to all districts of Bashkortostan. Authorities in the Altai and Krasnoyarsk Territories are considering imposing a state of emergency due to ongoing rains.

The US Department of Agriculture has not changed its forecast for wheat production and exports from Russia in the current agricultural season. Harvest of 83 million tons of wheat and export of 48 million tons are expected.

The USDA has lowered its forecast for corn production in Russia to 13.5 million tons (down 600 thousand tons from the previous report). Analysts point to low yields of this crop this year. A decrease in corn exports to 3.8 million tons is also expected. Forecasts for corn production and exports from Ukraine remain unchanged at 27.2 million tons and 24 million tons, respectively.

The Federal Antimonopoly Service of Russia has sent letters to the largest bread, flour, and butter producers in all regions of the country with the aim of monitoring prices for socially significant goods. Organizations are required to provide information on any proposed increase in wholesale prices for these products by the end of 2024.

Starting from September 18, 2024, customs duties on wheat will be raised, on corn will be reduced, and on barley will remain at zero.

BELARUS
In Belarus, over 7 million tons of grain and legumes have been harvested. Farmers continue corn harvest.

KAZAKHSTAN
Kazakh farmers harvested almost 8 million tons of grain with an average yield of 14.7 centners per hectare. The total harvest area exceeded 5.4 million hectares. 5.4 million tons of wheat and 1.9 million tons of barley were threshed.

An attempt to illegally import 526 tons of Russian wheat (8 wagons from Saratov and Tula regions) into Shymkent city was foiled. From August 21 to December 31, Kazakhstan has imposed a complete ban on wheat imports to protect the domestic market and prevent grain re-export.

UKRAINE
Ukraine has harvested 30.08 million tons of grains, including 21.8 million tons of wheat, 5.5 million tons of barley, and 1.1 million tons of corn.

The sown area of winter crops in Ukraine is 639.9 thousand hectares.

More information in the Grain Market Overview as of 13.09.2024.