Brazil will increase soybean plantings and reduce the area under corn

Price dynamics and weather conditions are pushing Brazilian farmers to sow more soybeans and less corn in the 2023–2024 agricultural season, data from the national supply company (Conab) reported on October 22, online publication AgNews.

For the previous three years, the weather in South America was determined by the La Niña phenomenon, which caused severe drought in southern Argentina and Brazil. In 2024, the opposite phenomenon, called El Niño, developed in the tropical Pacific Ocean. In Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil's southernmost state, heavy rains significantly delayed the first corn planting in September.

The 2023-2024 soybean harvest is projected to be a record 5.953 billion bushels (162.017 million tons), up 4.8% from the previous season. Brazil's soybean acreage is projected to grow 2.5% to 112 million acres (45.32 million hectares), according to Conab. The expansion of the area will occur partly due to the plowing of pastures, partly due to other crops. In the 2022-2023 season, Brazil received 154.615 million tons of soybeans from 44.11 million hectares.

Soybean prices are low in Brazil, but farmers continue to expand their planting area as the price of corn is even lower. Due to lower fertilizer prices, the cost of soybeans is expected to decrease.

Farmers began sowing soybeans in the spring, in mid-September. As of October 14, 19% of the planned areas have been sown. Soybean exports in the 2023-2024 season will reach a record 102 million tons, an increase of 5% from last year's level, when 97 million tons were sold.

In August and September, Brazil sold almost 50% more soybeans than in the same months of 2022. From February to August 2023, Brazil exported 80 million tons of soybeans, up from 64 million tons in the same period in 2022.

Conab expects the area under maize to decline by 5% to 21.04 million hectares. The harvest is expected to be 119.4050 million tons, down 9.5% from 131.9 million tons a year ago.

Corn sowing for the first harvest began in September. As of October 14, 30% of the area was sown. More than 70% of the corn comes from the second crop, planted in January-February.

In the 2023-2024 season, exports are expected to be 38 million tons, 26% less than the record 52 million tons in the past season. Brazil in 2023 overtook the United States, the long-time leader in corn supplies. If Brazil reduces exports, then the United States will have a chance to regain its primacy.