Price analysis for the crop by February 22nd.

Russian wheat competes in the global market with high supply from Black Sea countries, while the barley market remains stable. Demand from Iran, actively purchasing Russian corn, is keeping prices from dropping. The deficit of high-protein soy forces processors to raise prices, and the comfortable profitability of oil crushers allows them to raise purchasing prices if needed.

**WHEAT**

World market

Factors leading to price increase:

• The condition of soft wheat crops in France is currently worse than last year. As of February 12, 68% of wheat crops were in good/excellent condition (-25% compared to the same period last year).

Factors leading to price decrease:

• 20 thousand tons of wheat were purchased by Jordan in a tender on February 20, presumably of Romanian origin, at a price of $240.5 per ton C&F. This is $12.5 cheaper than the purchase price at the tender on February 13.

Russian market

Factors leading to price increase:

• No significant factors noted.

Factors leading to price decrease:

• Competition with wheat from the Black Sea region (Ukraine, Romania) amid price dumping by Ukraine.
• Decrease in purchasing prices from domestic consumers.

Summary:

The wheat market remains under pressure from the global market situation, with prices falling below the psychological mark of $220 per ton (FOB Novo). Despite minimal tariff reductions and the dollar's rise, exporters have revised purchasing prices downwards. It is currently difficult to determine the support level for wheat prices, but stabilization is likely from March, with an estimated level of $205-210 per ton. Against this backdrop, port purchasing prices may drop to 12,500 rubles per ton excluding VAT.

BARLEY

World market

Factors leading to price increase:

• No significant factors noted.

Factors leading to price decrease:

• No significant factors noted.

Russian market

Factors leading to price increase:

• No significant factors noted.

Factors leading to price decrease:

• Decrease in purchasing prices from domestic consumers.

Summary:

Barley prices remain stable for now but are unlikely to avoid following a different trend from wheat. The demand for barley is weakly diversified, and in the second half of the year, most buyers contract proportionally less than at the beginning of the year, which will also put pressure on prices. A gradual movement towards zero tariffs is likely, but the final value will depend on the dollar's exchange rate.

CORN

World market

Factors leading to price increase:

• No significant factors noted.

Factors leading to price decrease:

• Ahead-of-pace harvesting of the first crop of corn in Brazil. As of February 17, harvesting was completed on 21% of the sown area (+7% compared to the same period last year).

Russian market

Factors leading to price increase:

• Continued interest in Russian corn from Iran.

Factors leading to price decrease:

• High corn stocks among farmers. As of the end of January, according to Rosstat data, they amounted to 3.4 million tons, which is 6% less than the same period last year but 5% higher than the average over 5 years.
• Decrease in purchasing prices from domestic consumers.

Summary:

Corn prices have remained at the same level as a week ago and are in line with projected levels. Competition for buyers will increase as supply grows from South American exporters. The demand from Iran remains important for supply continuity. […]

SUNFLOWER

World market

Factors leading to price increase:

• The end of national holidays in China, with expectations of increased demand.

Factors leading to price decrease:

• Increased sunflower processing volumes in Ukraine: 1.4 million tons in January, up 36% from a year ago. Overall, from September 2023 to January 2024, oilseed processing in this country increased to 6.5 million tons (+9%).
• Weak demand from Turkey.

Russian market

Factors leading to price increase:

• Maintained comfortable profitability of processing plants.

Factors leading to price decrease:

• Decrease in the cost of finished products on both the export and domestic markets.
• High sunflower stocks among farmers. As of the end of January, according to Rosstat data, they amounted to 2.5 million tons, which is 13% lower than the same period in 2023, but 25% higher than the average over 5 years.

Summary:

Currently, no significant factors leading to an increase in sunflower prices are observed in the Russian market. The decrease in the cost of finished products, coupled with ongoing competition from Ukraine, is exerting significant pressure. The upcoming tender results for purchasing vegetable oils by GASC (Egypt) could establish export prices at the level of $770-780 per ton. […]

SOY

World market

Factors leading to price increase:

• Reduction in export forecasts in favor of increasing domestic soy consumption in Brazil.

Factors leading to price decrease:

• High harvesting rates in Brazil, where a second record soy crop is expected. According to USDA forecasts, it will reach 156 million tons.
• Forecasts of a high soy crop in Argentina - 52 million tons.
• Decreased demand from China.

Russian market

Factors