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This year, the rapeseed acreage in Russia has reached a record 5 million hectares. The increase in acreage by 30% is expected to result in a harvest of 5 million tons. Despite the lifting of the rapeseed export ban on August 31, a new measure will be the introduction of a duty to regulate exports and domestic prices.
LLC "Grain-Aggregator" provides information on the amount of duty on rapeseed exports, possible markets for the record harvest, and indicative prices.
From September 1, 2024, to August 31, 2026, an export duty on rapeseed will be introduced. Its rate will be 30% or not less than 165 euros per ton. The aim of this new measure is to prevent a rapeseed shortage in the domestic market and stabilize prices.
This decision should also encourage the sale of raw materials within the country for further processing. Previously, rapeseed exports were prohibited, except through the Zabaikalsky crossing, through which products from other regions were supplied. This led to an increase in rapeseed exports, the risk of a raw material shortage in the domestic market, and a decrease in processing volume in the country.
This year, Siberia and Zabaikalye have all the conditions for a record harvest. However, the lack of processing plants here may pose a problem for farmers, leading to the need to send the harvest to other regions.
How will the introduction of an export duty affect rapeseed prices in the domestic market?
The price of rapeseed in the new season will largely depend on the supply level in the market. If the harvest is indeed record-breaking, its mass arrival may lead to some price reduction. At the same time, every producer today faces the choice – to sell the harvest for export or within the country. If the price is low, then it will be more profitable for the seller to export rapeseed, even with a high export duty rate. In June, the average price in the domestic market, according to Rosstat, was 36,401 rubles per ton, which is 2.4% higher than in May. At the same time, according to prices provided by the Kuban Agricultural Information and Advisory Center, this week the price of rapeseed on the exchange in Paris was $492 per ton. Experts believe that global rapeseed production this year will not be able to meet the growing demand, which, in their opinion, will lead to an increase in global rapeseed prices. The largest global rapeseed producer, Australia, has revised its harvest forecasts several times. It is projected that global rapeseed production will amount to 87.2 million tons, which is 2% less than last year.
