Reduced corn yields increase prices on the domestic market, making it more expensive than wheat; the quality of sunflower seeds exceeds expectations.

The decrease in corn yield due to drought has led to an increase in prices for this crop in the domestic market, making it more expensive than feed wheat. Barley export shipments remain steady, although the possible introduction of export duties may affect quotations. The quality of the new sunflower crop is one of the highest in recent years, despite unfavorable weather conditions. High competition for raw materials among processors determines the price dynamics in the market.

WHEAT

World Market

Factors leading to price increases:

• The USDA significantly reduced estimates of the EU crop by 4 million tons, partially offset by improved forecasts for Australia and Ukraine.

Factors leading to price decreases:

• Despite more negative USDA forecasts regarding the crop, export forecasts were raised due to Australia, Canada, and Ukraine.

Russian Market

Factors leading to price increases:

• Unconfirmed data on Egypt's purchase of 430 thousand tons of Russian wheat outside the GASC tender.
• Progress in negotiations with Iraq opens up opportunities for large wheat shipments from Russia (up to 1.5-2 million tons per year).

Factors leading to price decreases:

• No significant factors.

Summary:

Wheat prices in Russian ports continue to rise against the backdrop of a lower dollar exchange rate and increased demand. On the world market, Russian wheat is more attractive compared to European or American wheat, ensuring high shipment rates despite the reduced crop potential and cautious behavior of farmers in selling their products. It is essential to note that current prices exceed the calculated parity level, indicating limited potential for further growth without support from the global market. This factor is currently crucial and is likely to support the ruble exchange rate in export markets.

BARLEY

World Market

Factors leading to price increases:

• The USDA significantly lowered the estimate of the crop in Canada by 1.1 million tons and in the EU by 450 thousand tons, partially offset by improved prospects in Australia (+700 thousand tons).

Factors leading to price decreases:

• Expected slowing down of barley purchases by China due to sufficient reserves and weakening demand.

Russian Market

Factors leading to price increases:

• Competition between exporters and the domestic market.

Factors leading to price decreases:

• Possible introduction of export duties at the end of the month due to the rise in the base price.

Summary:

Barley exports continue to steadily grow, sometimes exceeding market expectations, amid a significant decrease in the crop and export potential in the current season. Prices continue to strengthen above $190 per ton on a FOB Black Sea basis, also supporting ruble quotations. Further price increases are expected, as domestic demand also supports the market. The only factor that could slow down growth is the imposition of a duty (around 150 rubles per ton) if the base price reaches $190 per ton.

CORN

World Market

Factors leading to price increases:

• Argentina's and Brazil's plans to increase soybean planting area for the 2024/25 season by reducing corn acreage.

Factors leading to price decreases:

• Corn harvesting and increased supply in the US.

Russian Market

Factors leading to price increases:

• Iran's active demand due to low domestic stocks leads to price increases compared to other regions: FOB Astrakhan prices are $10 per ton higher than in ports of the Azov-Black Sea basin.
• High domestic demand due to concerns about crop reduction.

Factors leading to price decreases:

• No significant factors.

Summary:

The situation in the corn market remains unchanged: there is almost no liquidity in deep-water ports, with most activity concentrated in the Caspian region, where Iran purchases with a premium to standard prices at FOB Black Sea. Furthermore, a decrease in corn yields has led to a sharp rise in prices in the domestic market, where it trades above feed wheat as livestock farmers strive to ensure sufficient supplies. Prospects for mass shipments from northern ports remain uncertain at least until October, when most of the harvest will be gathered. Initial prices FOB are expected not to fall below 15,500 rubles per ton without VAT.

SUNFLOWER

World Market

Factors leading to price increases:

• A decrease in sunflower crop yields in Bulgaria and Romania will increase import demand from the EU.
• The USDA significantly reduced estimates of the crop in Ukraine by 1 million tons and in the EU by 650 thousand tons.
• Large purchases by Egypt at GASC auctions indicate the potential for price growth for sunflower oil in the Russian market compared to current quotations.

Factors leading to price decreases:

• Maximum vegetable oil stocks in India since the beginning of 2024.

Russian Market

Factors leading to price increases:

• Farmers expect price increases and are not in a hurry to sell raw materials from the new crop.
• Price increases for sunflower oil follow global market prices and the dollar exchange rate.

Factors leading to price decreases:

• An increase in supply due to intensified harvesting in the Central and Volga Federal Districts.

Summary:

Sunflower supply in Russian regions is slightly increasing as the harvest progresses in the central part of the country. However, trading activity among farmers in the Central Federal District is still low, as are oil mills, which are relatively hesitant to raise purchase prices (current levels are around 36,000-38,000 rubles per ton without VAT, CPT tentatively), focusing on yield dynamics during fieldwork. It is important to note that the quality of the supplied raw material for oil remains one of the best in recent years, despite natural disasters in