Russian rapeseed oil is expected to increase exports to China in 2024/2025, according to forecasts and prospects.

Perspectives of Rapeseed Oil Export from Russia

Note: An agricultural year is a yearly period of time. In the case of rapeseed oil, it lasts from July to June. For example, the year 2023/2024 corresponds to the period from July 2023 to June 2024.

Rapeseed Oil Export. Results of the 2023/2024 agricultural year. According to USDA data, rapeseed oil exports from Russia in the 2023/2024 agricultural year amounted to 1,375.0 thousand tons, which is 5.8% (75.0 thousand tons) more than in 2022/2023. Over the past 5 years, export volumes have increased by 2.3 times (784.0 thousand tons), and over the past 10 years by 4.2 times (1,047.0 thousand tons).

Rapeseed Oil Export. Forecast for the 2024/2025 agricultural year. According to USDA forecasts, rapeseed oil exports in the 2024/2025 agricultural year will reach 1,500.0 thousand tons, exceeding the 2023/2024 figures by 9.1%. The export growth will be driven by increased production volumes, which in turn will increase due to expanded rapeseed supplies (see the rapeseed market research by AB-Center).

Destination of Rapeseed Oil Exports from Russia

Practically all rapeseed oil volume in the 2024/2025 agricultural year will likely be sent to China. In the period of 2023-2024, over 90% of all Russian rapeseed oil deliveries were destined for this country. 10 years ago, China accounted for only 1.5% of the delivery volume, 5 years ago - about 30%, 3 years ago (in 2021) - 40.2%, and in 2022 - just over 60%.

According to Chinese customs statistics, the total volume of deliveries from Russia in 2023 amounted to 1,338.0 thousand tons, which is 2.5 times (792.9 thousand tons) more than in 2022.

In January-July 2024, the volume of rapeseed oil deliveries from Russia to China slightly decreased to 605.8 thousand tons. This is 17.3% (127.1 thousand tons) less than the same period in the previous year.

Delivery trends to China align with the dynamics of rapeseed oil production in Russia. In 2023, there was an expansion of production, while in January-July 2024, under relatively low rapeseed harvests (based on 2023 results), production decreased. Significant rapeseed harvest growth is expected in Russia in 2024, providing a basis for increased production volumes in the 2024/2025 agricultural year, as reported in the rapeseed market research by AB-Center.

Potential for Expanding Rapeseed Oil Exports from Russia to China

Rapeseed oil imports to China from all countries reached 2,359.4 thousand tons. The volume of deliveries increased by 2.2 times (1,298.1 thousand tons) in a year, by 82.1% (1,063.4 thousand tons) over the past 5 years, and by 54.5% (832.6 thousand tons) over the past 10 years. Russia accounts for 56.7% of the total delivery volume. Apart from Russia, rapeseed oil was imported to China in significant quantities from the UAE, Belarus, Ukraine, and Canada.

In January-July 2024, rapeseed oil imports from all countries to China totaled 1,049.6 thousand tons, which is 19.7% (256.9 thousand tons) less than the same period in the previous year.

In 2023, most of the rapeseed oil in China came from Russia (57.7%). Significant imports were also received from the UAE, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Ukraine, and Romania.

According to AB-Center estimates, China is self-sufficient in rapeseed oil at 83%. Production in the 2023/2024 agricultural year reached about 7,722 thousand tons, while consumption was at 9,300 thousand tons. Almost all oil in China is used in the food industry. By the end of the 2023/2024 agricultural year, rapeseed oil reserves were at 1,602 thousand tons.

In the 2024/2025 agricultural year, a slight increase in consumption is expected - up to 9,600 thousand tons, while production will decrease to 7,332 thousand tons (by 390 thousand tons). The production decline will be due to decreased rapeseed harvests. According to USDA estimates, the consumption growth will mainly be met by reducing reserves to 1,229 thousand tons.

Russian rapeseed oil is competitive both in price and in delivery volumes (not every supplier can deliver oil in such quantities). More detailed information on rapeseed oil prices in China by country of origin can be found in the following article in the “Analytical Articles from AB-Center” section.