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The Ministry of Agriculture of the United States of America in its March report raised the forecast for wheat yield in the current agricultural year (July 2023-June 2024) in the Russian Federation from 91 million to 91.5 million tons. The estimation of reserves for the current period amounts to 12.44 million tons, which is 500 thousand more than the previous estimate.
The forecast for wheat exports from Russia remains unchanged and is expected to be at the level of 51 million tons.
The forecast for corn yield in the current agricultural year has been reduced to 16.6 million tons (compared to 17 million in the previous report). Corn exports remain unchanged and are forecasted at 5.3 million tons, with reserves amounting to 1.06 million tons.
The production of fodder grains has decreased to 42.54 million tons (-400 thousand), while exports remain at the level of 11.39 million tons, and reserves are estimated at 2.04 million tons.
The forecast for wheat exports for Russia's main competitor – the European Union – remains unchanged at 36.5 million tons. The forecast for wheat production in the EU has been reduced by 350 thousand to 133.65 million tons.
Wheat exports from Ukraine have been increased again and are forecasted at 16 million tons (+1 million). The forecast for wheat yield remains unchanged at 23.4 million tons. Reserves will decrease from 3.98 million to 3.28 million tons. The forecast for corn production has been reduced by 1 million to 29.5 million tons. On the contrary, corn exports have significantly increased to 24.5 million tons (+1.5 million).
The assessment of wheat yield in Kazakhstan remains unchanged at 12.11 million tons. Exports are also maintained at the same level – 10 million tons. The estimation of reserves for the current period has increased to 1.63 million tons (compared to 1.43 million tons in February).
The forecast for global wheat yield in the new agricultural year has been raised again to 786.7 million tons (+960 thousand tons), fodder grains – 1 billion 507.41 million tons (compared to 1 billion 510.08 million tons in the previous report), corn – 1 billion 230.24 million tons (compared to 1 billion 232.57 million tons).
In its forecasts, the USDA does not include data on Crimea and new territories.
