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The FAO forecast for global grain production in 2024 has been increased by 7.9 million tons, representing 0.3 percent, reaching a record level of 2854 million tons. Improvement in the yields of forage grains and wheat is the main reason for the growth. Particularly, an increase in corn production is expected in Argentina and Brazil due to better weather conditions. However, production in Brazil will still be below the record level of 2023.
Forecasts for corn production have also been raised for Turkey and Ukraine. Nevertheless, a decrease in production is expected in Indonesia, countries in South Africa, and Pakistan due to various factors such as drought and a drop in demand for animal feed. The wheat production forecast has also been raised, mainly due to Asia, especially Pakistan.
The forecast for global grain consumption for the 2024–2025 season is 2856 million tons, exceeding the June estimate by 5.4 million tons or 0.2 percent, and 13.6 million tons or 0.5 percent higher than last year. The forecast for forage grain consumption has been increased by 3.7 million tons due to the expected growth in consumption of corn, barley, and sorghum.
An increase of 1.2 percent in rice consumption is expected. The FAO forecast for global grain stocks at the end of the 2025 season has been reduced by 2.9 million tons to 894 million tons, but a slight increase is still expected compared to the beginning of the season. The ratio of global grain stocks to consumption will remain approximately the same.
Forecasts for global grain trade in the 2024–2025 season remain unchanged, with a slight decrease in wheat exports from the Russian Federation. However, an increase in corn exports from Ukraine and imports to China are expected. The volume of global rice trade is expected to be lower than the June forecast, especially due to a decrease in imports in China.
