Market decline: prices for wheat, corn, and soybeans have fallen on global exchanges, analysts expect pressure on quotes.

On Monday, July 15, 2024, the wheat market once again decreased. At the end of the trading day, September soft red winter wheat futures on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) fell to $195.66 per ton, September hard red winter wheat futures on the Kansas City Board of Trade (KCBT) dropped to $204.11 per ton, and September hard red spring wheat futures on the Minneapolis Grain Exchange (MGE) fell to $213.39 per ton.

The wheat market resumed its free fall on Monday, with contracts dropping by double digits on most exchanges. Chicago September futures ended the day down 18-1/4 cents. Kansas City contracts fell by 12-1/4 cents at the close. Minneapolis spring wheat futures dropped by 16-¾ cents.

Wheat futures on the Chicago Board of Trade hit contract lows, and corn futures also declined. Soybean futures in the U.S. fell to nearly a four-year low on expectations of a bumper crop in the Midwest and concerns over demand for oilseeds.

Analysts believe that last week's U.S. crop benefited from the remnants of Hurricane Beryl, which brought rains to the drought-hit areas of the eastern Midwest. More rain fell over the weekend, with moderate temperatures forecast for this week.

Weekly Crop Progress data showed that as of July 14, 71% of the U.S. winter wheat crop had been harvested, which is 9% above normal. Ratings for spring wheat conditions rose by 2 percentage points to 77% good/excellent.

Export inspections data showed that for the week ending on July 11, 533,828 tons of wheat were shipped. This is double the amount shipped in the same week last year, and 55.47% more than the previous week. Mexico was the leading buyer, purchasing 124,648 tons, while Taiwan bought 97,902 tons. Total shipments for the first one and a half months of the marketing year now stand at 2.27 million tons.

The Russian consulting company IKAR increased its wheat production forecast in Russia by 1.2 million tons to 83.2 million tons.

Analysts at the Rosario Grain Exchange expect wheat production in Argentina for the 2024/25 season to reach 20.5 million tons, a 3% decrease from the previous season (21 million tons). Wheat sowing in the country is almost complete, with 5.85 million hectares sown as of July 10, representing 92.9% of the planned area.

Corn futures on the Chicago Board of Trade ended Monday's session with contracts falling. Rain expected in a significant part of the U.S. corn belt this week added pressure to prices.

Crop Progress data showed that as of July 14, 41% of the U.S. corn crop had entered the silking stage, higher than the 32% average for this date. The corn condition rating stands at 68% good/excellent, unchanged from the previous week and below expectations of a 1% improvement.

Export inspections data indicated that a total of 1.079 million tons of corn was shipped during the week ending on July 11. This is more than double the amount shipped in the same week last year, with strong shipment pace this year, and 5.37% more than the previous week. Mexico remains the top destination, with 555,962 tons shipped there, 135,150 tons to Taiwan, and 119,320 tons to Japan. Total shipments amount to 44.592 million tons for the year, which is 31.32% higher than the same period last year.

Conab analysts raised their forecast for safrinha corn production in Brazil in the 2023/24 season by 2 million tons to 100 million tons. The overall corn production forecast in Brazil increased from 114.14 million tons to 115.8 million tons (still -12% year-on-year). Export of Brazilian corn in 2023/24 is expected to decrease to 33.5 million tons compared to 54.6 million tons in the previous season.

Soybean futures ended Monday's session with declines. Soybean meal futures fell by $5–7 per ton. Soybean oil contracts fell by 23–111 points at the close.

Crop Progress data showed that as of July 14, 51% of the U.S. soybeans were blooming, which is 7% ahead of the average pace. By this date, 18% of soybeans had set pods, which is 6% above the average pace. The soybean condition rating remained unchanged at 68% good/excellent.

In the USDA export inspection report last week, 168,593 tons of soybeans were shipped for the week ending on July 11. This is 4.8% more than the same week last year, but 42.7% less than the previous week and below trade expectations. Mexico was the main destination, with 65,762 tons shipped. Total exports since the beginning of the year amount to 42.02 million tons, a 15.8% decrease from the previous year.

Some analysts attribute the decline in the soy complex at the CBOT to a higher likelihood of Donald Trump winning the presidential election after the attempted assassination on him over the weekend. A Trump victory may signal trade tensions with China, the world's largest soybean buyer.

September wheat futures on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) fell by 18-1/4 cents to $5.32-1/2 per bushel on Monday, September corn CBOT dropped 11-1/2 cents to $3.90-1/2 per bushel, and November soybeans declined 25-1/4 cents to $10.40 per bushel.

On the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CBOT) on Monday with September, November deliveries:

• Wheat (Sept. 2024) - $195.66 per ton (17,170 rubles/ton) - down 3.31%;
• Corn (Sept. 2024) - $153.74 per ton (13,490 rubles/ton) - down 2.86%;
• Soybeans (Nov. 2024) - $382.13 per ton (33,530 rubles/ton) - down 2.37%;
• Rice (Sept. 2023) - $720.24 per ton (63,200 rubles/ton) - up 0.44;
• Rapeseed (ICE, Nov 2024) - $615.50 CAD/ton (39,640 rubles/ton) - down 0.52%.

According to FranceAgriMer monitoring, the pace of soft wheat harvesting in France remains low.