Drug Ozempic threatens the sugar industry - participants did not pay attention. The impact of GLP-1 on the future of the food market has not been assessed.

During the New York Sugar Dinner, which gathered over 800 sugar traders, Sally Lions Wyatt informed attendees about the potential threat posed to their industry by the drug Ozempic. She noted that this drug could have a significant impact on the future of this sector. However, for the most part, participants were focused on bets placed on how much time she would spend speaking, rather than paying proper attention to her words.

This underestimation of Ozempic continued at other events held as part of New York Sugar Week, where discussions on sugar supply forecasts, the role of biofuels, and exchange rules took place, but the demand for the new drug remained in the background. Walmart representatives reported that Ozempic and Zepbound were negatively affecting food sales, and survey results indicated that consumers were cutting back on spending at stores and restaurants.

According to analysts at Morgan Stanley, by 2035, about 10% of the U.S. population will be taking GLP-1 drugs, leading to a 1.5-2.5% reduction in calorie and sweet consumption. Steven Geldart from the Czarnikow Group believes that, despite high costs and limited supplies, GLP-1 sales exceeded $19 billion in 2023 and could reach $100 billion by the end of the decade.

More than 60% of Americans taking GLP-1 drugs have reduced their sweet consumption, according to Morgan Stanley data. However, representatives of the sugar industry, such as Carlos Murilo Barros de Mello and Kona Hak, believe that this is not yet significantly impacting the market, especially in developing countries where the demand for sugar continues to rise.

Despite global sugar demand growing slower due to increased health awareness among the population, it is still supported by population and income growth in Asia and Africa. Sugar remains the primary sweetener in 80% of global consumption, despite competition from corn syrup containing fructose.

With the spread of GLP-1 drugs and the emergence of more affordable generics, their influence may intensify. According to Geldart, sugar consumption in the UK could decrease by tens of thousands of tons. GLP-1 drugs are already impacting stock markets: the S&P Consumer Staples index fell after Walmart announced a decline in food sales. Nestlé is already developing a new product line aimed at GLP-1 drug users.

During the Sugar Dinner, Lions Wyatt urged companies to consider the needs of GLP-1 drug users and adapt their range accordingly. However, despite her warnings, most participants continued to focus on their bets rather than her words.