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In mid-July, the International Sugar Organization (ISO) held a conference on the Zoom platform dedicated to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on sugar and ethanol. According to the press service of the Union of Sugar Producers of Russia, Plinio Nastari, the head of the analytical agency Datagro, spoke at the conference and noted that the pandemic has brought greater attention to health issues, sustainable agriculture, and air emissions. This has led to a growing interest in the use of sustainable fuel blends containing bioethanol, biogas, and biomethane, as well as renewable energy sources, indicating that the world is moving towards hydrogen.
According to Plinio Nastari's research, countries with high levels of air pollution are facing a higher number of COVID-19 fatalities. Among the 50 cities with the highest level of air pollution, 25 are in India and 22 in China. For example, the air pollution level in São Paulo is 16.2 mg/cu.m., and the city ranks 879th in the global rating.
The demand for ethanol already exceeds sugar consumption. Today, the global demand for ethanol stands at 118.9 billion liters, equivalent to 213.7 million tons of raw sugar. According to the International Renewable Energy Agency's (IRENA) renewable energy program, by 2030 the global demand for ethanol should reach 500 billion liters, and by 2050 – 1,120 billion liters. It is expected that bioethanol production will increase tenfold.
Plinio Nastari also mentioned that sugar consumption is expected to decrease for the first time in nearly 40 years. He anticipates that global sugar consumption will reach 183.3 million tons in 2019/20, with a reduction of almost 5 million tons from March 2020 to February 2021.
Macroeconomic factors, such as national currency regulation against the US dollar, primarily affect exports. The 32.9% devaluation of the Brazilian real in 2020, as well as reduced ethanol consumption due to the pandemic and falling oil prices, led producers to switch to sugar, resulting in export growth. Sugar prices in Brazilian reals in the Central-South region of Brazil reached a five-year high, allowing producers to freeze their crops for several seasons. According to Datagro, by the end of June, 80% of the exported sugar for the 2020/21 season had been hedged. Plinio Nastari believes that sugar production in the Central-Southern region of Brazil in 2020/21 will reach 38.3 million tons, setting a historical record and exceeding the previous season's production by 43% (26.8 million tons).
