Wheat futures on the CBOT are setting new records, a price drop is expected next week.

At the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT), wheat futures continue to rise for the seventh consecutive trading day. This sharp increase in prices is driven by weather conditions, leading to new record highs for active wheat contracts. This is the highest price since December.

The situation with soybean and corn futures looks less certain. Soybean futures are slowly declining, while corn prices remain stable as traders expect delays in planting in the U.S. due to heavy rains in the Midwest.

Experts note that corn has received support from high export sales in the U.S., but slowing soybean exports have increased competition from Brazil. As a result, there is a shift in market dynamics.

As of the evening in Greenwich, the most active July wheat contracts on CBOT rose by 6-1/4 cents, reaching $6.26-3/4 per bushel. Earlier, this contract reached its peak at $6.33-1/4 per bushel, the highest price since January 11.

Dry weather in some areas of southern Russia and the central U.S., as well as frosty weather in some parts of Europe, continue to create unstable conditions. However, weather forecasts for the next week show a higher chance of rain in both regions. This could lead to a temporary decline in futures prices.

“Last week they needed rain,” said Darrin Fessler from Lakefront Futures. “Wheat is losing the crop seriously and in a hurry,” he added.

The European Commission is reducing its forecast for wheat crop in the European Union for the 2024/25 season to a new four-year low due to reduced sowing areas caused by weather conditions.

Analysts note that a recently published report by the U.S. Department of Agriculture on winter wheat planting showed that 50% of plantings are in good or excellent condition compared to 55% the previous week. This information contributed to the rise in wheat futures prices this week.

However, analysts believe that prices will decrease next week.

“I think they overdid it a bit,” said Joe Davis, Director of Commodities Sales at Futures International. He expected wheat prices to remain stable or slightly increase.

In general, CBOT July corn contracts rose by 1/4 cent to $4.52-1/4 per bushel, and July soybean contracts fell by 3-3/4 cents to $11.76 per bushel.

“The grains and oilseeds sector hit a speed bump overnight, but nothing out of the ordinary,” says Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodity Economist at StoneX. “Much of the recent rally was driven by overnight sales, then strength returned after a morning pause.

“Wheat continues to lead the market, though prices have reached a high level. The short-covering of stocks was orderly, without signs of panic. It’s still early, and there's time to improve the weather on the plains, in Europe, and Russia.