Wheat exports in July may break the five-year-old record - Rusagrotrans

Prices for export wheat from the Russian Federation increased significantly over the week, which was facilitated by the news about Russia's withdrawal from the "grain deal". Against this background, the export of wheat in July may break a historical record, according to the materials of the analytical center Rusagrotansa, available to the magazine pole.rf.

     “The forecast for wheat exports in July 2023, taking into account the EAEU countries, is 4.1-4.2 million tons (the previous record was in July 2018 - 4 million tons),” analysts say.

 
Export prices

Export prices for Russian wheat with 12.5% protein for August delivery rose to $240 per tonne FOB and higher (+$12.5 per tonne for the week). The price for American wheat strengthened to $257 per ton (+$12), for French - up to $268 per ton (+$19).

The exchange market for wheat has sharply strengthened after Russia's withdrawal from the "grain deal", news about the damage to grain terminals in the ports of Odessa and Chernomorsk, and also against the backdrop of the statement of the Russian Ministry of Defense that from July 20 all ships en route to Ukrainian ports in the Black Sea waters will be considered as potential carriers of military cargo.

Bangladesh announced a tender for the purchase of 50 thousand tons of wheat, proposals are accepted until August 1.

In the US, as of July 16, the share of spring wheat in good/excellent rose to 51%, while the market did not expect changes (47% a week earlier, 71% last year). The share of corn in good/excellent condition increased to 57%, in line with market expectations (55% a week earlier, 64% last year). The winter wheat harvest is 56% complete, slightly below market expectations of 57% (46% last week, 69% last year).

Quotes of Russian barley for July-August rose to $175 per ton (+$3). Purchasing prices based on CPT Novorossiysk rose to 13,500-13,600 rubles per tonne (+550 rubles).
Prices in ports and within the Russian Federation

Prices for wheat (grade 4, 12.5% protein) in deep-water ports strengthened to 16,500 rubles per ton without VAT (+ 400 rubles per ton compared to the previous week), remained unchanged at low water - 14,500 rubles per ton. Last year prices were 14,100 rubles per ton in deep water and 12,600 rubles per ton in shallow water.

The domestic wheat market strengthened in the South, where prices for grade 4 wheat (12.5% protein, EXW elevator) reached 14,500-15,100 rubles per ton (+700 rubles). In other regions, market activity was low and prices did not change.

Lower rainfall in the South will speed up the harvest of wheat and barley, analysts say. Rains in the Central Federal District and in the northern part of the Volga, on the contrary, will slow down the harvesting work. Precipitation in the Urals and Siberia is favorable for spring crops, but hot weather will prevent a significant increase in soil moisture reserves.