Export of wheat and sunflower oil from Russia may be limited. Their prices on the world market have fallen sharply

The ministry plans to discuss this issue this week, Vedomosti writes with reference to the statement of the first deputy head of the agricultural department Oksana Lut at a meeting in the ministry. The reason was a sharp decline in world prices for these products. 

Over the past week and a half, the cost of sunflower oil on world markets has decreased from $1,100 to $ 800 per ton, sunflower — from $ 600 to $ 395 per ton, a source told the newspaper. Wheat this week traded at a price of $280-275 per ton. Buyers offer to conclude contracts for May at a price of $ 250 per ton, it was noted at the meeting. One of the vegetable oil exporters confirmed the information about the meeting planned by the Ministry of Agriculture. According to him, it is supposed to discuss export restrictions. A representative of the Ministry of Agriculture said that a separate meeting with oil producers is not planned, and "issues of product sales are within the competence of business."

Vladimir Petrichenko, CEO of the analytical company ProSerno, told Agroinvestor that one of the key reasons for the current sharp drop in prices for cereals and sunflower oil is the extension of the "grain deal". "It is very strange if our government allows our unfriendly competitors to work on the world market and continue their exports, and recommends the exact opposite to its taxpayers," the expert argues.

According to him, the cost of wheat with 12.5% protein has now decreased from $282 per ton to $275 per ton FOB Black Sea. Sunflower oil has fallen in price to about $900 per ton and below FOB Black Sea. Two weeks ago, the price was more than $1,000 per ton. Petrichenko recalled that the export of sunflower is now prohibited, and the export of sunflower oil in September-February reached 1.54 million tons, taking into account the sanctioned countries, but without the countries of the Customs Union. Last season, at this point, the figure was 1.044 million tons .

The press service of the Fat and Oil Union told Agroinvestor that commercial strategies are a matter for the companies themselves. Dmitry Rylko, Director General of the Institute of Agricultural Market Conjuncture, declined to comment on this issue. The same was done in the press service of Efko. 

Elena Tyurina, director of the analytical department of the Russian Grain Union, told Agroinvestor that since March 10, the cost of Russian wheat on FOB was higher than the supply of French wheat of the 4th class. "This was the situation at the beginning of the season, when we reduced exports. Now the discount is lower by $12-17 per ton, at the beginning of the season it reached minus $40 per ton. Comparison of data on export volumes and discount shows that profitability and export volumes are decreasing," she said. A year ago, the maximum export prices for wheat were observed. So, the French cost $450 per ton, the American CRW cost $495 per ton, the Russian 4th class cost $400 per ton FOB, Tyurina previously told.

The export potential for wheat is about 12 million tons, in general, for grain — 16 million tons. "We are interested in exporting these volumes, a decrease in competition may lead to a slight drop in exports, but not to a complete reduction, because we have traditional buyer countries. Therefore, I do not think that a full stop is possible," Tyurina concluded.

Source: Агроинвестор