Prices for sunflower seeds in Russia continue to rise due to the expected decrease in the harvest - experts warn of further growth.

Last week, sunflower prices in the European part of Russia actively rose. Purchase prices increased by 2-6 thousand rubles, ranging from 32 to 35 thousand rubles per ton, and selling prices increased by 2-5 thousand rubles, ranging from 34 to 36.5 thousand rubles per ton. Sunflower oil prices also rose, but not as significantly - by 0.3-1 thousand rubles, ranging from 72.2 to 73.5 thousand rubles per ton (purchase) and from 72.8 to 74.4 thousand rubles per ton (sale). OilWorld data indicate an increase in FOB supply prices by 5 dollars, to 930 dollars per ton, and demand - also by 5 dollars, to 900 dollars per ton.

According to the General Director of the analytical company "ProZerno" Vladimir Petrichenko, sunflower prices are indeed increasing, and the current growth is just the beginning. "We will have a decrease in oilseed harvests, including sunflower," explains Petrichenko. He also notes that everyone will lower their forecasts, and accordingly, prices for these crops will rise. According to "ProZerno" monitoring as of September 6, the price per ton of sunflower reached 36.65 thousand rubles without VAT, which is 1.66 thousand rubles higher than the previous year at the same period.

Currently, sunflower harvesting is taking place in the South of Russia, in regions most affected by drought. Therefore, yield indicators are significantly lower than last year, putting pressure on prices, notes the head of the Fat-and-Oil Union Mikhail Maltsev. This leads to an increase in prices for sunflower seeds during harvesting, instead of the expected decrease. However, the final duration of this trend will depend on the overall gross harvest of all oilseeds, not just sunflower. "After completing harvesting across the country, we will be able to assess the losses from weather anomalies. However, if the trend of rising raw material prices continues, it will affect the cost of processing products," comments Maltsev.

A source from "Agroinvestor" in the oilseed market also states that purchase prices for new sunflower crop continue to rise. This trend has been ongoing in the domestic market for the past few weeks. "Farmers are not in a hurry to sell the sunflower seeds harvested during harvesting, and plants need to build up a base for operation, so there is competition among oil extraction plants for sunflower, and prices are actively rising. However, fat-and-oil enterprises in the Central and Southern regions of the country are making every effort to keep prices at the level of 34-35 thousand rubles per ton without VAT (CPT)," says a representative of "Agroinvestor". The quality of the harvest of 2024 does not raise concerns, sunflower seeds are of sufficient quality. However, the situation with soybean protein is worse this year.

According to an expert, the price of sunflower oil will largely depend on the volume of sunflower supply in the new agricultural year. Currently, the balance in the Black Sea region is tight, and a decrease in yields is expected in the EU and slightly in Argentina. Ukrainian farmers are also holding sunflower for sale to plants. This expert believes that export prices for sunflower oil may slightly increase due to relatively low supply from sellers, caused by reduced harvest and slow pace of raw material realization by agricultural producers. However, much will depend on the global market situation.

Earlier, "Agroinvestor" reported that the analytical company "ProZerno" reduced its sunflower harvest forecast by 0.6 million tons to 15 million tons excluding new regions (compared to 17.25 million tons last year). The Institute for Agricultural Market Conditions (IKAR) also lowered its forecast from 16 million to 15.4 million tons. Independent expert Alexander Korbut estimated this year's sunflower harvest at 14.8-15.2 million tons, initially his forecast was at the level of 15.6 million tons excluding new regions, and with them - 17 million tons. According to the expert, there is a possibility of further downward revisions. The forecast of the Fat-and-Oil Union for the sunflower harvest remains at the same level - around 16 million tons.