Stern, Winter crops - Fork Cast

A meeting between the UN and Russia on grain and fertilizer supplies may take place in February. The conditions of the memorandum on unlocking exports and other measures have not been met. Talks with the UN team on access to agricultural markets are ongoing.

The "grain deal" has been terminated, as Russia declined to extend its validity.

It is projected that grain harvest in Russia will exceed 139.5 million tons by 2025, with a yield reaching 29 quintals per hectare. The implementation of modern technologies and government support contribute to increasing crop yields without expanding farmland.

In the north of Siberia, the Far East, and the Urals, cold weather down to minus 30 degrees is expected, while in the south of Western Siberia there will be high temperatures. It will be especially cold in Taymyr and Chukotka. In other regions, temperatures will return to around zero.

The forecast of the International Grain Council: the global grain production in 2024/2025 will reach 2.3154 billion tons (+500 thousand tons), wheat production will decrease to 798 million tons. In Russia, a decrease in grain production is expected, but an increase in exports. In the European Union, the grain harvest will decrease to 263.7 million tons, and exports will fall to 43.4 million tons. Kazakhstan expects stable figures for grain production and exports.

The world prices for wheat and corn have decreased: in Chicago wheat -4.41%, in Kansas -6.00%, in Minneapolis -4.33%, corn -2.78%. Russian prices: wheat $213.90/ton, barley $184.50/ton, corn $189.20/ton. The grain harvest is expected to be 132 million tons, with exports reaching 52.5 million tons, including 43.7 million tons of wheat. Weather conditions are affecting the harvest.

World wheat prices vary: they have risen in Chicago, while changes are also observed in Kansas and Minneapolis. Prices for rice, corn, and barley are also fluctuating.

Russian export prices for grain are also changing: wheat has increased, barley has decreased, and corn has risen. Domestic purchase prices for wheat in Russia have decreased. New customs duties will be reduced from July 20.

The Grain Association has selected 13 countries for direct supplies of Russian grain products without intermediaries. The decision was made on October 11, 2024.

Partners of the association bear responsibility only in case of a long-term agreement.

World wheat prices fluctuated: CBOT fell to 803.25 cents/bushel, KCBT dropped to 934.25 cents/bushel, MGE rose to 951.50 cents/bushel.

Prices for corn and rice increased. Russian prices have also changed. Grain exports continue to grow.

Farmers in Perm region faced a poor harvest due to bad weather conditions: a cold spring and rainy summer resulted in a 4-fold decrease in crop yield compared to the previous year. Drought and rains affected the quality of seeds, which impacted the harvest of grains and vegetables. Large farms will receive support, while small ones are forced to reduce production.

In Khakassia, harvesting has been suspended on 7.5 thousand hectares due to heavy snowfall. Unfavorable weather forecast has led to crop losses, especially in the Ordzhonikidzevsky district. Harvesting will resume after the snow melts. The yield of cereals has decreased by 5-6 c/ha, with plans to harvest 125 thousand tons of grain. 17.5 thousand tons will be used for seeds.

At the Eastern Economic Forum, the Zabaikalsky Grain Terminal was launched for trade between Russia and China. Deputy Prime Minister Trutnev pointed out the issues with cargo registration and the fight against COVID-19, emphasizing the need for control by Rosselkhoznadzor and improvement of cooperation. The terminal addresses transportation problems and enhances delivery speed.

The head of the European Commission promises agricultural producers from Hungary and Poland 100 million euros for lifting the ban on grain imports from Ukraine, urging unity in trade. The EU is preparing a 100 million euro aid package to support farmers. Measures will be introduced and an investigation will be conducted.