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In Australia, the areas allocated for rapeseed cultivation have decreased by 4% compared to last year and now amount to 8.27 million acres (3.35 million hectares). This forecast was published on April 18 by the Australian publication Western Producer, based on estimates from the Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA).
However, if the drought currently being observed in Western Australia continues for another month, the rapeseed harvest could be significantly reduced. In the previous season, 44% of the total rapeseed volume in Australia was produced in this state. New South Wales and Victoria rank second and third in rapeseed production, respectively.
Before the start of the autumn sowing campaign, agricultural conditions in New South Wales appear to be quite favorable. At the same time, good weather conditions are also present in Victoria, although farmers there are hoping for rains expected in June.
The Australian Bureau of Meteorology forecasts that from May to July, rainfall in New South Wales will be above average, but many areas in Victoria and Western Australia are expected to receive below-average rainfall. In such a case, if the drought in Western Australia and Canada continues, crop residues could be the lowest in the past eight years, leading to an increase in rapeseed prices, according to experts from the bank's report.
According to the forecasts of the Commonwealth Bank, rapeseed production in Australia in the 2024-2025 season will amount to 5.67 million tons, which is approximately the same level as last year. However, experts from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) have given a higher estimate - 6.5 million tons, which is 14% more than last year, making it the third-largest crop in history.
The USDA expects an increase in rapeseed planting areas in Australia, as prices are expected to rise. According to USDA estimates, the areas allocated for rapeseed will amount to 9.39 million acres (3.8 million hectares), which is 8.6% more than last year.
Australia is the second-largest exporter of rapeseed in the world after Canada. According to USDA data, 70% of Canadian rapeseed exports are destined for the European Union for biodiesel production. In recent years, there has been a "significant shift" and now Japan, the United Arab Emirates, Pakistan, and Mexico are also significant consumers of Canadian rapeseed.
