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The production of oilseeds in the Russian Federation in 2023 may be reduced by 5.4%, to about 27.5 million tons, but against the background of sufficient carryover stocks, such a decrease will not become critical, follows from the materials of the Institute for Agricultural Market Studies presented at the conference "Where is the margin" (IKAR)
“For the first time in quite a long period, we are experiencing a reduction in acreage due to sunflower, a little bit of rapeseed, and a very serious one for oil flax: a drop in acreage from 20% to 40% was recorded in six Russian flax-producing regions. ceteris paribus, we expect a very compact harvest, which we currently estimate at 27.5 million tons," IKAR CEO Dmitry Rylko said at the conference.
Meanwhile, "grand carry-over stocks" will make such a reduction uncritical: according to the presentation, carry-over stocks of oilseeds at the end of the 2022-2023 season could be in the order of 2-2.5 million tons, and in such conditions, a reduction in production next season should not be a problem" The total area may be reduced to 17.6-18 million hectares from 18.6 million last season.
As for sunflower, its production in the 2023-2024 agricultural year, according to the materials, may decrease to 15.7 million tons in test weight from 16.357 million tons a season earlier.
"The implementation of projects for the processing of oilseeds continues, which, if launched, will require an additional 1.5-2 million hectares of crops. The ending stocks of sunflower for the 2022-2023 season, 1.5 million tons, according to our estimates, will support processing," he added. Rylko.
