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The abundance of rains in Brazil puts pressure on global soy prices, leading to a decrease in export prices in Ukraine. Nevertheless, processors are gradually increasing purchase prices and expanding the volume of soy processing amid a reduction in sunflower crop yields.
Throughout the week, export purchase prices for GMO soy in the Black Sea ports decreased to 17700-18000 UAH/ton or 380-385 USD/ton, which is 300-500 UAH/ton lower, while processors raised prices by 300-500 UAH/ton to 18000-18500 UAH/ton delivered to the plant. The increase in sunflower prices to 24500-25000 UAH/ton and the reluctance of producers to sell lead to an increase in soy processing volume.
Export purchase prices for non-GMO soy in the Black Sea ports remain at the level of 455-465 USD/ton or 21800-22200 UAH/ton, but the number of buyers has decreased. At the same time, processors increased prices by 300 UAH/ton to 21700-22200 UAH/ton delivered to the plant.
As of October 10, Ukraine has already harvested 4.83 million tons of soy from an area of 2.12 million hectares, or 80% of the total area.
According to Conab, as of October 13, Brazil has planted 9.1% of the planned soy areas (compared to 19% last year); however, thanks to the rains, planting is expected to accelerate soon. The first forecast from Conab estimates soy production this season at 166 million tons, which is 12.7% higher than the previous season (147.4 million tons), due to a 2.8% increase in sown areas to 47.33 million hectares.
On the Chicago exchange this week, soybean futures for November fell by 2.5% to 364 USD/ton (-6.7% since the beginning of October) due to improved soy crop forecasts in Brazil and rapid harvesting in the US, where 67% of the areas were already harvested by October 13 (compared to an average of 51% over the past 5 years).
December Brent crude oil prices fell by 6.3% to 74.3 USD/barrel at the beginning of the week, increasing pressure on oilseed prices, especially against the backdrop of reduced demand from China.
According to Gostamozhni, in September, China reduced soybean imports by 6.8% compared to August to 11.37 million tons, and imported 81.85 million tons of soybeans during the first 9 months of 2024, which is 8.1% higher than last year's figures.
