Turkey has banned wheat imports due to having sufficient reserves and plans for flour production, which will affect Russian exports.

According to the message posted on the website of the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry of Turkey, the import of wheat will be prohibited from June 21 to October 15, 2024. The imposed restrictions are aimed at protecting domestic producers and may be revised in the future.

According to information from the Grain Exporters Union, as reported by "Kommersant," Turkey was the second largest buyer of Russian wheat by mid-April. However, deliveries decreased by 23% compared to the previous season, reaching 6.5 million tons by the end of May. The Union stated that Turkey was able to accumulate reserves of over 9 million tons, and this volume will presumably be used for sales.

Alexander Korbut, an independent grain market expert, claims that the ban on wheat imports from Turkey represents a serious challenge for Russian agrarians. He believes that such a decision by the Turkish authorities is, firstly, due to the unwillingness to compete with cheap imported grain, as is happening in Europe. Secondly, Turkey has large wheat reserves, with a significant portion of this wheat having been supplied from Russia this season. The import restriction will allow them to sell last year's wheat and subsequently purchase new crops at lower prices.

Korbut notes that the temporary absence of such a significant buyer as Turkey will inevitably impact export activities and lead to a decrease in purchase prices for agricultural producers. However, the wheat harvest in Russia this year will be lower than last year, so Russian agrarians may weather this period.

Vladimir Petrichenko, the CEO of the analytical company "ProZerno," believes that Turkey is unlikely to extend the import restrictions since the country plans to increase flour milling capacities. He speculates that exporters will try to increase shipment volumes to other markets. Petrichenko also points out that Russia expects a significant reduction in export potential in the new season, however, import restrictions from Turkey temporarily negatively affect prices, but this will be offset by the reduction in grain production in Russia.

In general, Turkey's temporary closure for a short period does not seem critical for Russian agrarians, considering the predicted decrease in export potential. However, this measure may lead to a temporary reduction in grain prices.

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