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The unexpected drop in the price of August rapeseed futures on the Paris Exchange has puzzled traders. The rapeseed harvest is not yet completed, and rains in France and Germany are delaying the harvest and damaging its quality.
Over the past three sessions, prices for August rapeseed futures in Paris have fallen by 4.5% to €472.5/ton or $513/ton (+2.1% for the month), while November futures have only fallen by 1.6% to €493.5/ton or $536/ton (+5.3% for the month). This indicates high demand for rapeseed, and the drop in August futures is explained by increasing deliveries as the harvest progresses.
November canola futures on the Winnipeg Exchange, after some growth last week (a total of 9.5%), have fallen by 0.6% over the past three sessions to 671 CAD/ton or $486/ton (+8.9% for the month), despite the heat on the prairies. Forecasts point to dry and hot weather next week, which is unfavorable for canola crop formation.
Purchase prices for rapeseed in Ukraine have fallen by 500-700 UAH/ton over two days to the range of 22800 to 23000 UAH/ton or $470-475/ton with delivery to Black Sea ports. They decreased after reaching values in the range of 23500 to 23700 UAH/ton last week, leading to a reduction in sales volumes from farmers.
Traders have already contracted over 1 million tons of new crop rapeseed and continue active purchases for export to the EU. Prices for rapeseed DAP Czech Republic and Germany in July-August remain stable at €465-470/ton.
Oil prices remain unchanged, so the main factor affecting rapeseed prices next week will be the weather in Canada.
