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In the near future, internal wheat prices may come under pressure due to low export activity. This opinion was expressed by the analytical center "SovEcon". Currently, the average price of 4th class wheat has decreased by 100 rubles to 14,850 rubles per ton ($151 per ton) - this is the first negative trend since mid-October. Analysts attribute this to price reductions in southern regions.
In the South, wheat prices have dropped by 400 rubles to 15,650 rubles per ton ($158 per ton) over the past week - the lowest level since the end of September. Analysts believe that the main reason for the price decline in the key export region could be weakening demand from exporters. It is forecasted that the export potential of wheat in November will amount to 4 million tons, compared to 5.5 million tons in the previous month.
In the Central region of Russia, wheat prices by October 13 have risen by 350 rubles to 14,200 rubles per ton ($145 per ton). Analysts attribute this increase to strong demand from domestic buyers, mainly livestock breeders. Export prices for Russian wheat last week decreased by $3.5 to $228-230 per ton FOB.
The analytical center "Rusagrotrans" previously reported that last week, the domestic wheat market saw strengthening prices. In the South, prices for 4th class wheat increased by 100 rubles to 15.4-15.7 thousand rubles per ton without VAT (EXW elevator), in the Central region they rose by 650 rubles to 15.5-15.7 thousand rubles per ton, and in the Volga region also by 650 rubles to 15-15.5 thousand rubles per ton. Export prices for Russian wheat with 12.5% protein for delivery in November remained around $226 per ton FOB, and in December - $230 per ton FOB. Analysts raised the wheat export forecast in November from 4.6 million tons to 5 million tons.
Elena Tyurina, the director of the analytical department of the Russian Grain Union, previously noted that grain prices in Russia have different dynamics. Prices have fallen in the South and Volga region, while they have risen in the Central region. In dollar terms, prices have dropped from $157 per ton at the beginning of the month to $151.4 per ton. However, it is worth noting that compared to the previous season, prices are significantly higher. A year ago, the price of grain was $129 per ton. According to Tyurina's forecasts, wheat exports in November could reach 4.8 million tons, which is a third higher than last year. During the five months of the season, grain exports of 30 million tons are expected, including 26.7 million tons of wheat.
