The company "SovEcon" has reduced its forecast for wheat exports from Russia in the 2024/25 season to 42.2 million tonnes, which is 0.6 million tonnes less than previously expected. However, the forecast for the export of Russian grains in the next season has been increased by the same amount, to 38.9 million tonnes, as reported by the news agency "Interfax."
Experts explained the revision of the forecast for the current season by low shipments and low profitability of export operations. In February, only 2 million tonnes of wheat were exported compared to 4.1 million tonnes last year and the average for the past five years this month," the experts noted.
It is worth reminding that since February 15, Russia has imposed a quota on wheat exports amounting to 10.6 million tonnes. "SovEcon" points out that large traders, who received a significant share of the quota, are in no hurry to make deliveries, preferring to increase their profitability. As a result, the quota may not be fully utilized, the company "SovEcon" reports.
Analysts also note that the slow pace of exports from Russia has been one of the factors supporting global wheat prices. Thus, since the beginning of this year, prices for Russian wheat (with a protein content of 12.5%) have increased by 12 dollars, reaching $248 per tonne (FOB).
In addition, the company reported that the increase in the forecast for the export of Russian wheat in the 2025/26 season is based on the low pace of exports in the current season and the growth of grain stocks.