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For the first time in a long time, parity levels exceed actual prices in ports, which may indicate the overcoming of the "price floor." The decrease in export duty on corn, and in the future, its possible complete abolition, support prices. The rise in sunflower oil prices on the world market may affect raw material costs. A significant factor in pricing on the market could be a change in the supply of high-protein soybeans.
WHEAT
World market
Factors leading to price increases:
- Adverse impact of weather conditions on wheat crops in India combined with a sharp decline in stocks and active withdrawal from the state fund to the market.
- Reduction in forecast sowing of winter wheat in Germany.
Factors leading to price decreases:
- China cancels contracts for the supply of American and Australian wheat due to declining global prices.
- High wheat and barley stocks in the internal market of Europe, putting pressure on export prices.
Russian market
Factors leading to price increases:
- No significant factors.
Factors leading to price decreases:
- Increase in offers from farmers with positive future outlooks.
- Wheat stocks at agricultural enterprises as of February 1 exceeded record levels of 2022/23 by 1%.
Summary:
For the first time in a long time, calculated levels have exceeded actual export prices due to the recovery of prices based on FOB at the end of the week. The reduction in the export duty rate also provided support. Thus, it can be said that the price floor, including ruble prices, is likely overcome, and the market may strengthen in the coming weeks. However, sustainable price growth should not be expected, as wheat stocks are excessive and farmers actively offer grain.
BARLEY
World market
Factors leading to price increases:
- No significant factors.
Factors leading to price decreases:
- Decline in barley prices in the European Union due to cheaper wheat and corn offers from other countries.
- High wheat and barley stocks in the internal market of Europe, exerting pressure on export prices.
Russian market
Factors leading to price increases:
- No significant factors.
Factors leading to price decreases:
- Increase in offers from farmers with positive future outlooks.
Summary:
Barley prices also fall below the calculated level. It is likely that the potential for reducing ruble quotes has been exhausted, and a slight recovery is expected in the next month, thanks to wheat market support and duty reduction.
CORN
World market
Factors leading to price increases:
- Further decrease in corn crop forecasts in Brazil due to weather conditions.
Factors leading to price decreases:
- No significant factors.
Russian market
Factors leading to price increases:
- Decrease in corn stocks at agricultural enterprises due to active exports and growing market demand.
Factors leading to price decreases:
- No significant factors.
Summary:
Corn prices are also declining, reflecting the overall trend. Current prices in ports are slightly above calculated, and the market has stabilized without noticeable fluctuations. It is expected that by the end of March or early April, the export duty will be lifted, which may lead to a slight price recovery in the next month.
SUNFLOWER
World market
Factors leading to price increases:
- Increased procurement activity in India due to depletion of accumulated stocks and adequate prices.
- Rise in oil prices, influencing all vegetable oils.
Factors leading to price decreases:
- No significant factors.
Russian market
Factors leading to price increases:
- Rise in the cost of sunflower oil on FOB amid strengthening of adjacent markets.
Factors leading to price decreases:
- Processors hold procurement prices at a level that provides them with a comfortable margin and sufficient sunflower seed reserves for contracting in the second quarter of 2024.
Summary:
Prices for sunflower seeds in the European part of Russia remain stable, satisfying both sides considering available stocks and parameters of finished product prices. The rise in the cost of sunflower oil on the world market and slight strengthening of the dollar may support raw material prices, but with some delay. During the active sowing period in the south of Russia, raw material volumes on the market increase, restraining potential sunflower seed price growth. Significant changes are not expected in the coming months, as international oil prices remain low.
SOYBEAN
World market
Factors leading to price increases:
- Rise in palm oil prices due to increased demand and expectations of reduced supply in Indonesia and Malaysia due to production cuts and increased domestic consumption.
- Reduction in soybean planting forecasts in Brazil due to weather conditions.
Factors leading to price decreases:
- Increase in soybean realization in Argentina. In the event of a new soy dollar program, market pressure may increase.
Russian market
Factors leading to price increases:
- No significant factors.
Factors leading to price decreases:
- No significant factors.
Summary:
Prices for high-protein soybeans remain consistently high due to active processing, mainly in Central Russia. Plants focus on selling soybean oil for export, mainly to China and India
