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In the current month, FAO slightly raised its latest forecast for global grain production in 2024, which now stands at 2853 million tons. This revision is due to increased production of rice and wheat, which outweighed a small decrease in global feed grain production. However, despite these changes, global grain production in 2024 is still expected to be below the 2023 level.
The forecast for global wheat production in 2024 is 792.9 million tons, which is 0.2 percent higher than the previous month and 0.5 percent higher year-on-year. This improvement is mainly due to increased wheat production in Australia, where favorable precipitation in western regions improved yield expectations. This increase compensated for a significant reduction in the forecast for wheat production in the European Union due to excessively wet weather, which lowered yields. The forecast for global feed grain production in 2024 was slightly reduced (to 1521 million tons), mainly due to a decrease in the forecast for corn and barley production in the European Union, where unfavorable weather conditions worsened crop prospects. However, the forecast for corn production in the United States improved, thanks to higher-than-expected yields driven by almost ideal weather conditions. The forecast for rice production in various countries was lowered, especially in Myanmar, due to ongoing floods and other production-related issues. However, this decrease was offset by more positive estimates for rice production in India, where record harvests are expected. As a result, global rice production in the 2024-2025 season is expected to reach a historical high of 539.2 million tons.
The forecast for global grain consumption in the 2024-2025 season is projected to reach 2853 million tons, which is 0.4 percent higher than in the previous season. The forecast for total wheat consumption is 793.7 million tons, which has remained almost unchanged from the previous month but is still below the previous year's level. A reduction in wheat use for feed purposes is expected, especially in China and India. The forecast for feed grain consumption in the 2024-2025 season is 1527 million tons, which is 0.5 percent higher than the previous year. This increase is mainly driven by higher corn and sorghum consumption in Argentina. The forecast for global rice consumption in the 2024-2025 season is expected to increase by 1.7 percent and reach a new peak of 535.6 million tons.
The forecast for global grain stocks at the end of the 2025 season was slightly reduced to 888.1 million tons, but they are still 1.2 percent higher than at the beginning of the season. The ratio of global grain stocks to consumption will remain almost unchanged at 30.6 percent, indicating favorable supply prospects. The forecast for global wheat stocks at the end of the 2024-2025 season is 316.2 million tons, mainly due to higher stock estimates in Australia, Ukraine, and the European Union. The forecast for feed grain stocks was reduced due to a decrease in corn and barley stock estimates, but overall global feed grain stocks are expected to grow to 365.8 million tons. Global rice stocks are expected to reach 206.0 million tons, which is 3.5 percent higher than at the beginning of the season.
Global grain trade volume in the 2024-2025 season is expected to be 488.1 million tons, which is 2.7 percent lower than the 2023-2024 season. The volume of global wheat trade is expected to decrease by 4.1 percent, mainly due to a decrease in exports from the European Union. An increase in corn, barley, and sorghum trade is forecasted due to increased demand and imports from respective countries, especially the European Union and China. However, feed grain trade volume is expected to decrease, especially due to a reduction in corn trade. The volume of global rice trade is also expected to decrease in 2024 but increase again in 2025, thanks to increased imports in the Middle East and Africa.
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