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As noted, this is a record level for May and significantly higher than the previous record of 3.2 million tons in 2018.
“From May 1 to May 11, about 1.6 million tons were exported,” analysts report.
Export prices
Export prices for Russian wheat with 12.5% protein for delivery in May-June fell to $255 per ton FOB (-$2.5 compared to the previous week), for delivery in July-August they remain at the level of $245-250 per ton. The price for American wheat rose to $263 per ton (+$2), for French it decreased to $258 per ton (-$3).
The exchange market of wheat decreased against the backdrop of favorable weather in the main exporting countries. First of all, this was influenced by rains in the Great Plains of the United States.
“Despite the fact that the initial forecast of ending world wheat stocks in the 2023/24 season in the May report of the US Department of Agriculture turned out to be higher than expected - 266.3 million tons against 265.1 million tons, the decrease in stocks in the United States turned out to be more than traders' expectations against the backdrop of a slight growth in production due to the negative situation with winter crops in a number of key states and increased consumption. Ultimately, this led to an increase in stock quotes not only in the wheat market, but also in the corn market,” analysts say.
Algeria bought 600-720 thousand tons of wheat at $275.0-276.5 per ton CNF for July delivery (this time with delivery to deep water ports). Most likely, wheat was purchased in the Black Sea countries and partially in France and Germany, analysts believe. In terms of FOB Novorossiysk prices amounted to about $245 per ton.
Strategie Grains raised the forecast for the EU soft wheat crop in the 2023/24 season by 1.1 million tons, to 130 million tons (expectations of the European Commission - 130.2 million tons), but lowered the forecast for the harvest of barley by 1.7 million tons, to 49.9 million tons, and corn - by 0.6 million tons, up to 62.1 million tons.
Excessive rains in Germany and France are likely to negatively affect the quality of wheat, reducing the level of protein in the grain, according to the Rusagrotrans analytical center.
Jordan bought 60,000 tons of barley (probably Romanian) at $257.5 per ton CNF for delivery October 16-31. Estimated FOB Novorossiysk is $222.5 per ton.
Rainfall in severely drought-affected regions of the US (mainly the south and central Great Plains) improves the health of winter wheat crops. As of May 7, the share of winter wheat in good/excellent condition rose to 29%, slightly below market expectations of 30% (28% last week, 29% last year). Spring wheat in the US is sown on 24% of the area - below the market's expected 28% (12% last week, 26% last year, 38% five-year average).
Prices in ports and within Russia
Prices for wheat (4th grade, 12.5% protein):
in deep-water ports - remained at the level of 13,100–13,300 rubles per ton without VAT;
at low water - decreased to 11,900 rubles per ton (-100 rubles).
Last year, prices were 15,900 rubles per ton in deep water and 14,900 rubles per ton in shallow water.
The domestic wheat market remained inactive. Prices in the South fell against the background of weak purchasing activity of exporters to 11,300–11,400 rubles per ton (-300 rubles). In the Center, the Volga region and Siberia, the market remained at the same levels.
“Forecast rains in the Volga Federal District will replenish soil moisture reserves, which have now fallen to low levels due to warm, dry weather. Excessive rainfall in the South is likely to adversely affect grain quality. The continuing predominantly dry weather in Siberia and the Urals creates negative prerequisites for the development of spring crops, which are currently being planted, ”the materials say.
Spring sowing of cereals has slowed down in the Center and the Volga region due to precipitation and continues to lag behind in the South. In the Urals, sowing is progressing faster than last year, while in Siberia it is lagging behind.
