The analytical center of Rusagrotrans raised the forecast for wheat production in 2023 by 3.2 million tons - from 85.5 to 88.7 million tons, the total grain harvest could reach 137.2 million tons. The adjustment is due to the latest data from Rosstat on the areas of spring accounting, which turned out to be higher than expected, according to the materials available to the magazine pole.rf.
“In the South, despite a significant decrease in gross harvest in the Krasnodar Territory, in other key producing regions (Volgograd Region and Stavropol Territory), the harvest will remain at high levels, and in the Rostov Region it will even exceed the record of last year. As a result, in the Southern and North Caucasian Federal Districts, the gross harvest may reach about 38.8 million tons, which will be the second result after 2022, when it reached 40.3 million tons,” the Rusagrotrans analytical center says.
Analysts predict that despite the undersowing and death of winter crops, due to record spring sowing and high yields in the Central regions of Russia, it will be possible to obtain about 20 million tons of grain, which will exceed the average for 5 years (19.6 million tons). In the Volga region, the gross harvest is expected to be above average, in the Urals - at the level of average values, and in the regions of Siberia, the harvest will decrease due to lack of rainfall.
In general, despite difficult weather conditions in all grain-producing regions from the fall of 2022 until harvest in the summer of 2023, analysts predict that grain production, although it will be lower than the record 2022 harvest (157.7 million tons), will exceed the previous records in 2017 and 2020.
“The gross grain harvest as a whole can reach about 137.2 million tons, including 19.7 million tons of barley and 14.9 million tons of corn,” analysts say.
With such a gross harvest, the export potential in the 2023/2024 season is estimated to be lower than the previous one: 57 million tons of grain versus 61.3 million tons in the 2022/2023 season, including 47 million tons of wheat versus 49.2 million tons last season.
