The growing demand for food products: China will maintain its leadership in importing soybeans and grains.

In the next 10 years, regions of Africa, the Middle East, China, Southeast Asia, Western Asia, and Latin America will play a key role in driving global trade turnover due to the growing demand for food products. This prediction is outlined in a report by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA). Analysts point out that China will maintain its position as the leading global importer of soybeans, expanding its market share to 62.4% by 2033/34.

Demand from China will contribute to continuous growth in international soybean trade over the next 10 years, leading to an increase in the total volume of global imports by 44.8 million tons (+25.3%) to 221.6 million tons, according to USDA forecasts. It is expected that China's annual import of feed grains will reach 44.2 million tons by 2033/34 (+3.4 million tons), although this figure will be lower than the historical peak of 50.5 million tons reached in 2020/21.

Furthermore, the forecast for 2033/34 anticipates that China, as the world's largest importer, will acquire 26 million tons of corn. The demand growth for feed crops in China is expected to exceed domestic corn production levels. To meet feed needs, Chinese imports of sorghum and barley are also expected to significantly increase by 2033/34, reaching 9.1 million tons and 8.6 million tons, respectively.

China will remain the largest sorghum importer (with a share of around 83% in the global market). At the same time, corn shipments to China may be constrained by quotas, while there are no restrictions for sorghum and barley. Additionally, China will remain the world's largest barley importer (8.6 million tons by 2033/34), although this will be lower than the peak of 12 million tons reached in 2020/21. However, China's share in global purchases of this crop, which was 28.3% in 2024/25, is expected to decrease to 25.9% by 2033/34 according to USDA analysts. A gradual decrease in wheat imports into China from 10.7 million tons to 9.7 million tons by 2033/34 is also forecasted due to the government's preference for developing food grain production and utilizing substantial reserves.

Denis Ternovskiy, a researcher at the Center for Agri-Food Policy of the Institute for Economic Forecas ts of the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, stated in an interview with "Agroinvestor" that China is likely to remain the largest importer of agricultural products in the next decade. There are expectations of significant growth in oilseed crop imports, while grain imports are more likely to stagnate or decline. Considering these trends, the prospects for expanding Russian agricultural exports through active development of soybeans and rapeseed production in Siberia and the Far East are becoming increasingly probable.

However, it should be noted that on one hand, there are plans and aspirations of domestic processors to export oil and meal, while on the other hand, forecasts suggest an increased need for China in non-processed oilseed crops, as noted by Ternovskiy. "Given the projected reduction in China's grain purchases, the potential of Russian exports in this direction using new logistics routes should be carefully evaluated," concluded the expert.

In early February, Andrey Kucherov, Deputy Head of the "Agroexport" Center at the Ministry of Agriculture, stated that in 2023, agricultural exports from Russia to China increased by over 50%. Agricultural products from Russia rank second in terms of export volume to China, second only to hydrocarbons, as noted by Yuri Ushakov, an aide to the President of Russia, following a phone call between the leaders of Russia and the PRC. According to forecasts from the "Agroexport" center, the volume of Russian exports of agricultural products to China could exceed $10 billion by 2030.

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