Experts' forecasts: sunflower crop in Russia will decrease to 15 million tons, prices for oil remain stable.

Last week, experts from the analytical company "ProZerno" lowered their estimate of the expected sunflower crop by 0.6 million tons, reaching 15 million tons excluding new regions (last year it was 17.25 million tons). The "Institute for Agricultural Market Conditions" (IKAR) previously reduced its forecast from 16 million tons to 15.4 million tons. "The reliability of this estimate is maintained, although there are concerns about the possibility of an even lower crop level. Special uncertainty exists in the Volga region, where the sunflower grain harvest is delayed for a long period due to vegetation lag, and there is a risk that the crop simply won't be harvested," commented IKAR's General Director Dmitry Rylko to "Agroinvestor." According to him, currently sunflower prices for producers in the South fluctuate around 34-35 thousand rubles per ton (excluding VAT), which is close to prices established at the end of the last agricultural year, and a low harvest is unlikely to lead to a seasonal decrease in these prices.

Grain market expert Alexander Korbut estimates this year's sunflower crop in the range of 14.8 to 15.2 million tons, while his initial forecast was 15.6 million tons (excluding new regions - 17 million tons). According to the expert, further downward revisions are undoubtedly likely. In addition, Korbut noted that a big question is what the quality of sunflower seeds will be. He believes that sunflower prices will primarily depend on global quotations, as domestic demand for sunflower oil in Russia is low. Usually, when oil prices fall, as is happening now, oil prices do not rise, he adds.

According to a source from the oil market, the current sunflower situation in Russia is cautiously viewed. For example, in the South, the specific productivity of this crop is significantly lower than last year, and in key producing regions such as Kuban, Rostov Oblast, and Stavropol Krai, the situation is also unfavorable. Fieldwork in central regions is just beginning to unfold, but already it can be seen that in some areas, the harvest is significantly worse than in 2023, the source reports. "A record sunflower crop is certainly not expected this year. This creates difficulties for oil plants, as seed stocks decrease, and the extensive supply of oil in the domestic market decreases," says the source to "Agroinvestor." However, this is beneficial for agricultural producers, as competition for raw materials promises to be very fierce. Already, sunflower prices are rising at a significant rate as enterprises strive to build a base even in regions where the new harvest has not yet begun. According to the source's observations, farmers are not yet showing activity in selling sunflower: many are waiting for more profitable prices, but there are also those ready to conclude contracts, especially due to storage limitations. However, sooner or later, the increases in procurement prices on the International Economic Zone (IEZ) will find their limit, as enterprises are economically based on the cost of oil, and there are currently no signs of a sharp rise in prices in this market.