Forecasts for the sunflower oil market: prices are stabilizing due to changes in export tariffs.

According to the forecast of the Fat-and-Oil Union, in December the export duty on sunflower oil may increase to about 8,000 rubles per ton, and in January - to approximately 15,000 rubles per ton. In November, the current level is 2,900 rubles per ton after a 17-month period of a zero rate. The Union reports that under these conditions and thanks to more optimistic forecasts for oilseed collection, prices for oilseeds will stabilize in the near future.

The Executive Director of the Fat-and-Oil Union, Mikhail Maltsev, notes that since the beginning of the season, there has been an increase in global prices for sunflower oil, which in turn leads to a significant rise in the cost of sunflower seed. This price change is due to expectations of a decrease in yields both in Russia and in other producing countries. The cost of sunflower seed accounts for about 90% of the production cost of oil. However, thanks to the export duty on sunflower oil, domestic prices are protected from sharp increases in global prices.

The Fat-and-Oil Union points out that as the harvest campaign progresses, it becomes clear that estimates of oilseed deficits were overstated. The final collection figures will be better than expected, which will also have a cooling effect on the sunflower market. The decrease in yields in the South will be compensated by record figures in the Volga region and Altai. Additionally, considering that a significant portion of processing capacities will be able to switch to rapeseed and soybeans, the record collection of these oilseed crops will also affect the sunflower market. Overall, the gross collection of oilseeds this year is expected to exceed 29 million tons, in line with last year's figures.

Mikhail Maltsev also draws attention to the fact that average annual domestic prices for sunflower oil have decreased by 5% over the past three years, while logistics costs have increased by 15% and wages have risen by 20%. In addition, there are additional costs for implementing the "Fair Sign" labeling and packaging. Taking into account these objective factors, fat-and-oil enterprises adjust the selling prices considering the expected effect of the export duty and yield forecasts.

According to data from the portal OilWorld.ru as of November 8 this year, average prices for sunflower seeds have currently increased by 1,470 rubles per week and by 3,740 rubles per month, reaching 45,200 rubles per ton, which is the highest level in two years. Average supply prices have also risen by 1,520 rubles per week and by 3,700 rubles per month, reaching 45,800 rubles per ton, also the highest in two years. The highest price for sunflower seeds is observed in the North Caucasus Federal District - 48,500 rubles per ton (demand) and 49,000 rubles per ton (supply), while the lowest price is in the Volga region: 42,100 rubles per ton (demand) and 43,000 rubles per ton (supply).