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At the beginning of this week, MARS forecasters, who monitor crop growth, adjusted their forecasts for grain yields in the European Union this year. Due to the ongoing hot weather, which adversely affects the northwestern regions of Europe, corn yield forecasts were sharply reduced.
The forecast for rapeseed yield for the current year was also cut to 3.07 tons per hectare, 3% below last year's figure.
The hot weather in Romania, which was previously France's main competitor in corn production, led experts to lower corn yield forecasts for the EU as a whole.
MARS predicts the average corn yield in 2024 to be 7.03 tons per hectare. This is lower than the previous value of 7.24 tons per hectare in July and 6% lower than last year's yield.
The organization noted that crops in regions with limited access to water were particularly affected, where the heat coincided with drought. The most affected countries were Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, and Greece.
The forecast for corn yield in Romania was reduced to 3.83 tons per hectare, which is 18% lower than last year. In Hungary, the forecast was reduced to 6.46 tons per hectare, which is 21% below last year's results.
According to MARS, temperatures in Romania were 2.0-3.5 degrees Celsius higher than usual. The period from July 1 to August 17 was the hottest since 1991.
MARS forecasts also indicate that this week will be warmer than usual in many parts of Europe. In some areas of southern Hungary, Serbia, and eastern Ukraine, temperatures may exceed the summer norm by 8 degrees Celsius.
MARS also lowered its forecast for the yield of soft wheat, the most common grain in the EU. Currently, the average yield is expected to be 5.68 tons per hectare, lower than the previous forecast of 5.87 tons per hectare and 2% lower than last year's yield. Barley (winter and spring) yield is 5.01 tons per hectare, lower than 5.09 tons per hectare in July but still 8% higher than in 2023.
The MARS report notes that the low yields of winter grains, especially soft wheat and barley, are due to excessively wet conditions, which have affected significant areas of Western and Northern Europe.
In the Baltic countries, abundant precipitation has affected grain quality, and frequent rains have made it difficult to harvest in northern France, the Benelux countries, and northwestern Germany, where grains suffered from wet conditions for most of the season.
The average yield of soft wheat in France, the largest grain producer in the EU, is expected to be 6.20 tons per hectare. This is significantly lower than 6.75 tons per hectare in July and 16% lower than last year's figure.
