Forecast of Russia's failure in the world wheat market

Arkady Zlochevsky, president of the Russian Grain Union, expressed his concerns about the situation on the agricultural market and the difficulties faced by Russian farmers. Despite this year's record harvest, grain sales are becoming increasingly difficult, especially on foreign markets. Turkey and Egypt, regular buyers of Russian grain, are now losing interest due to uncompetitive prices. This creates problems for domestic farmers, who are wondering about the feasibility of producing grain if they cannot sell it and earn money.

However, the total volume of grain collected is still impressive. According to preliminary data from the Ministry of Agriculture, domestic farmers have already harvested 147 million tons of grain, which exceeds all previous results except last year. Last year, about 158 million tons of grain were harvested. However, despite this, the highest level of grain harvest does not guarantee a healthy market. The President of the Russian Grain Union noted that the collected data can be manipulated, and the problems of the agricultural sector are not all taken into account.

Arkady Zlochevsky also noted that this season the 2022 record for the amount of grain collected will not be broken. His opinion is justified by the fact that the previously presented figures from the Ministry of Agriculture include data for both old and new territories of the country. The original record of 158 million tons of grain was set without taking into account new territories, so it is impossible to make an exact comparison. According to the Ministry of Agriculture, 140 million tons of grain have already been harvested, and forecasts from the Russian Grain Union estimate about 145 million tons. Thus, a new record will not be set, but we can be sure of second place in history. The increase is mainly due to the corn harvest, which has been impressive this season.

In addition, Zlochevsky expressed his opinion regarding the ban on the export of durum wheat, which the Ministry of Agriculture plans to introduce from December 1 for six months. He emphasized that such a ban would lead to farmers stopping producing durum wheat. In light of the impossibility of selling grain, farmers will not see the point in its production. Zlochevsky also noted that investments in durum wheat require special attention and care, and if exports are prohibited, it will be unprofitable for farmers.

The question of the ban on the export of durum wheat and its consequences should be addressed to the Ministry of Agriculture, since they were the ones who made this decision. He noted that despite the sanctions, Italy continues to buy durum wheat from Russia for the production of pasta. In the event of an export ban, domestic pasta producers will be able to save on grain purchases, but this will be a temporary phenomenon, since farmers will simply stop producing durum wheat due to unprofitability.

Regarding the restrictions and quotas introduced by the state, Arkady Zlochevsky noted that there is still an increase in sown areas. Probably due to threats coming from regional administrations and the Ministry of Agriculture, farmers are presenting rounded figures to comply with the state plan. However, accurate data on sown areas can only be collected by regional administrations and local agricultural authorities. Therefore, there is a possibility that the indicators reported by farmers may be distorted.

In general, despite the difficulties in the agricultural market and the decline in export dynamics, Russia remains the leading exporter of wheat in the world. Türkiye, Iran and Egypt are the main buyers of Russian grain.