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Last week, wholesale sugar prices continued to decline. As the harvest progresses, the quality of sugar beets improves, so expectations for the harvest rise, but prices do not tend to rise. According to the latest data from the Union of Sugar Producers, the current sugar yield is 14.7%. Under favorable weather conditions, the quality of sugar beets improves until mid-October, then the indicators begin to decline. Taking a conservative estimate of 14.3% sugar yield for the remainder of the processing season, beet sugar production can be expected to be 6.3 million tonnes. Additionally, the production of sugar from molasses is expected to be about 160 thousand tons (at the current low price for molasses, desugarization stations can operate the entire season, with a theoretical productivity of 170 thousand tons), and the production of sugar from syrup is about 90 thousand tons. The total is 6.55-6.60 million tons per season.
According to price monitoring Sugar.ru, for the period from March 19, 2020 to March 26, 2020, the dollar exchange rate rose by 0.8% (as of March 19 - 77.21 rubles/$, as of March 26 - 77.79 rubles/$). The Moscow ruble wholesale price for sugar decreased by 0.80 rub./kg (-2.73%), the Krasnodar wholesale price decreased by 0.90 rub./kg (-3.36%). The dollar wholesale Moscow price for sugar decreased by $0.013 / kg (-3.43%), the wholesale Krasnodar price decreased by $0.014 / kg (-4.03%).
A comparison of data on railway shipments and export-import operations in general shows that over the past few months, the logistics of Russian sugar exports has begun to change. If until the last months of last season the main export flows of Russian sugar were by rail, then, starting in June 2023, a significant part of the export was provided by road shipments. Thus, if previously Russian sugar came to Azerbaijan almost exclusively by rail, then in June-Aug. In 2023, sugar exports to this country amounted to 10.5 thousand tons of white sugar, of which only 0.9 thousand tons were shipped by rail. Similarly, sugar exports to Georgia increased significantly, where, despite the complete absence of shipments by rail in June-August, exports by road amounted to 6.3 thousand tons. This is obviously caused by difficulties in obtaining wagons for shipments by rail, and by the significant difference between domestic and world prices for sugar. Such exports by road transport can be about 10 thousand tons per month, not counting unaccounted “gray” exports, and monthly exports from Russia, given the existing differential between the domestic and world prices for sugar, exceed 30 thousand tons per month. If we extrapolate August road shipments to September (exact data will be available later), then in September sugar exports should exceed 40 thousand tons. Such significant export volumes will be able to offset the surplus in sugar production and cause prices to rise closer to the second half of the season. On the other hand, if domestic sugar prices begin to rise, then we will see a decrease in the rate of sugar exports.
Our assessment of sugar consumption shows that as of September 1, 2023, rolling sugar consumption over the last 12 months is 6 million tons, which is slightly higher than the same figure as of August 1.
The estimated cost of white sugar from raw sugar is $872.53/t (86.78 rubles/kg).
As of October 5, 2023, the cost of sugar from imported raw sugar in Uzbekistan is $881.4/t (78.21 rubles/kg in Krasnodar, including delivery) without VAT and duties, in Kazakhstan - $813.9/t (76 .67 rub./kg in Krasnodar including delivery) without VAT and duties.
According to railway monitoring Sugar.Ru, in September 2023, 16.8 thousand tons of sugar were imported into the Russian Federation (for the entire August - 7.8 thousand tons, July - 4.7 thousand tons). The pace of exports is accelerating, 30.7 thousand tons of white sugar were exported in September (for the whole of August - 21.3 thousand tons, July - 19.9 thousand tons). September exports of white sugar go mainly to Kazakhstan (61%). Rail transit via the Russian railway in September amounted to 951 tons of Belarusian sugar to Tajikistan.
The transit of raw sugar in September decreased sharply and amounted to 9.2 thousand tons to Uzbekistan. For comparison, in August this figure was 34.3 thousand tons.
