World grain market forecast: reduction in production, increase in reserves and trade, changes in consumption.

MAIN EVENTS

Production of all grain varieties (wheat and feed grain) in 2023/24 is forecasted at 2304 million tonnes, 6 million tonnes lower than the previous month due to worsening prospects in the southern hemisphere. A decrease in consumption is expected due to reduced feed demand and other factors, leading to an increase in stock estimates. However, global grain trade volumes are increasing thanks to improved performance in corn and wheat.

This overview includes the first full set of demand and supply forecasts for 2024/25. Despite reduced stocks, supply surpasses demand, allowing for an increase in global grain reserves. Consumption is expected to rise due to increased feed demand. However, the assessment assumes a possible stock increase by the end of the season.

Due to reduced forecasts for Brazil, soybean production in 2023/24 slightly decreases, estimated at 390 million tonnes. An increase in stocks is expected, but a decrease in trade, especially deliveries to China and Argentina. Preliminary forecasts for 2024/25 indicate growth in production, consumption, and reserves.

The forecast for global demand and supply of rice in 2023/24 remains almost unchanged, with anticipated decreases in production, consumption, stocks, and trade. Next year's forecast indicates increased production and consumption, as well as an increase in reserves.

With the expected increase in corn and sorghum production, global production of all cereal crops in 2023/24 is expected to rise. Increased consumption and decreased stocks by the end of the season are predicted. Cereal trade, mainly wheat deliveries, is expected to be at lower levels.

In 2024/25, grain production is expected to increase, especially for wheat and feed grain. An increase in global reserves is expected with reduced stocks from the previous year. Increased trade is forecasted due to expanded deliveries to Asia, Africa, and America.

Due to reduced production from leading producers, rice production in 2023/24 is expected to decrease, along with declining demand and stocks. A decrease in trade is expected due to the maintenance of trade restrictions in India.

Deliveries of feed beans in 2023/24 will decrease due to reduced production. Production and demand will remain at current levels next year. Trade will also be below previous peak levels. The total volume of global trade in grain beans in 2024 will reach 20.8 million tonnes.

1. Grain Production Forecast