In the latest report of the US Department of Agriculture, no predictions regarding the wheat harvest in Russia for this agricultural year (July 2024-June 2025) have changed - it remains at 83 million tons. However, the estimate of remaining stocks after the harvest has been reduced from 7.74 million to 6.74 million tons.
The forecast for Russian wheat exports remains unchanged at 48 million tons.
As for corn harvest, the forecast has been revised down to 15 million tons (a decrease of 400 thousand tons compared to the previous report). The projected corn export is 4.6 million tons (a reduction of 400 thousand), and the remaining stocks are expected to be at 0.41 million tons (unchanged).
The production of feed grains has been decreased from 40.43 million to 39.23 million tons, with the export estimate at 9 million tons (compared to 10.2 million). The remaining stocks are expected to be at 1.21 million tons (instead of 1.22 million).
The wheat export estimate for Russia's main competitor - the European Union - has been lowered by 0.5 million and now stands at 34.5 million tons. The wheat production forecast in the EU has also been reduced by 0.5 million - now standing at 130 million tons.
The projected wheat export from Ukraine remains unchanged at 13 million tons. The wheat harvest forecast is also unchanged at 19.5 million tons, with remaining stocks expected at 0.96 million tons. The corn production forecast also remains unchanged at 27.7 million tons. Corn exports also remain unchanged at 24.5 million tons.
The wheat harvest forecast in Kazakhstan remains unchanged at 14.5 million tons. The export volume is also the same - 10.5 million tons. Remaining stocks are expected to be at 2.18 million tons.
The forecast for world wheat production for this agricultural year has been increased to 796.19 million tons (+5.44 million), and the volume of feed grains production is 1,512.38 million tons (compared to 1,511.19 million tons in the previous report). The projected corn harvest volume is 1,224.79 million tons (1,220.54 million tons in the previous report).
In its forecasts, the US Department of Agriculture does not take into account data for Crimea and new territories.