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The termination of the Black Sea deal could lead to a 10-15% increase in grain prices, warns the IMF.
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The termination of the Black Sea deal could lead to a 10-15% increase in grain prices, warns the IMF.

The IMF has warned of a potential 10-15% increase in grain prices due to the completion of the Black Sea deal, through which 33 million tons of grain were exported from Ukraine. The termination of the deal could lead to a rise in food prices due to increased demand.

28 March 2025 28 March 2025

According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the completion of the Black Sea deal could lead to a 10-15% increase in grain prices. This was reported by the IMF's chief economist, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, at a press conference.

Gourinchas stated that around 33 million tons of grain were exported from Ukraine with the Black Sea initiative, which helped maintain downward pressure on grain and food prices.

However, now, with the suspension of the grain deal, this situation is starting to change. Gourinchas noted, "The same mechanics are working in the opposite direction." He also added that an increase in pressure is expected, leading to rising prices of food products.

"We are assessing how much the supply will decrease and how price elasticity will change as a result of this decrease and increase in demand. At the moment, we are still analyzing the situation. However, in our opinion, a 10-15% increase in grain prices is a reasonable estimate, but we continue to monitor the developments," stated the chief economist of the fund.

 

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