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The government has made amendments to the Strategy for the Development of Agriculture and Fisheries Complex until 2030. The corresponding order has been published on the official portal of legal information. The new version of the strategy contains basic and conservative scenarios, while the previous version of the document, approved in 2022, provided for target and basic scenarios.
According to the new basic scenario, agricultural production should increase by 25% by 2030 compared to 2021, in line with the task set by President Vladimir Putin. The conservative scenario assumes a growth of 13.5%. Previously, the Strategy envisaged a stable annual growth rate of 3%, and by 2030, the index of agricultural production should have reached 129.7% of the 2020 level. The Federal State Statistics Service, or Rosstat, reported that in 2024, agricultural production decreased by 3.2% after growing by 0.2% in 2023.
According to both new scenarios, the export of agricultural products is expected to increase to $55.2 billion by 2030, which is one and a half times higher than the 2021 levels. The previous Strategy aimed to achieve figures of $41 billion in the basic scenario and $47.1 billion in the optimistic scenario. At the end of last year, the "Agroexport" center estimated that by the end of 2024, the volume of agricultural product exports would be equal to the 2023 level, which stood at $43.5 billion.
According to the new basic scenario, the volume of investments in fixed assets of agriculture and fisheries complex should grow by 12.2% by 2030, while the conservative scenario suggests a growth of 7% compared to the 2020 level. The target scenario of the previous version of the Strategy assumed an increase in investments by 50%, and the basic scenario - by 14%. The area of agricultural land use in both scenarios of the updated Strategy by 2030 should exceed 13.2 million hectares, in accordance with the federal program "Land." The previous version of the document envisaged a figure of around 5 million hectares only in the basic scenario.
Indicators of staffing provision of agricultural enterprises have also been adjusted. By 2030, the achievement of a level of 95% is expected in the basic scenario and 92% in the conservative scenario. The share of the rural population and rural agglomerations in the total population of the country should be 34.7% and 34.4%, respectively. The target indicator for the level of technological independence in the field of food security is planned to be increased to 66.7% in both scenarios, in accordance with the corresponding state project.
The updated Strategy points out a shortage of agricultural machinery for field work to be completed in optimal terms - roughly 62,000 tractors and 34,000 combines. In October, the Ministry of Agriculture proposed to change this figure, estimating it at 65,000 tractors. The ministry then stated that it was necessary to have 494,300 tractors and 176,500 combines. As of August 1, 2024, agricultural producers had 429,500 tractors, 127,100 grain combines, and 15,100 forage combines. The accepted Strategy states that as of October 1, 2024, farmers had 432,500 tractors, 127,400 grain combines, and 15,100 forage combines. However, as previously reported by "Agroinvestor," the Strategy inadequately takes into account recent years and underestimates risks for further industry development, including wear and tear of fixed assets and business opportunities for their renewal.
