Sunflower – relatively positive outlook

According to experts, in the new season, the sunflower harvest will be at the level of 15.7-16 million tons. Stocks last season - 1.5 million tons.

IKAR assesses the balance in the sunflower market as “comfortable for the industry”. However, expert estimates do not take into account the volume of sunflower grown in the DPR, LPR, Kherson and Zaporozhye regions. They will come to the Russian market and influence the situation.

- I believe that these four regions will produce somewhere between 1.5-1.8 million tons of sunflower, - said Vladimir Petrichenko, General Director of ProZerno, at the conference "Flagship crops of the oilseed market ...", which was held on June 29, 2023 .

Also in his speech, he pointed out that the so-called "Ukrainian dumping" (when agricultural products from Ukraine are sold at a very low price - Author's note) will significantly affect sunflower exports in the new season.

Also in his speech, he pointed out that the so-called "Ukrainian dumping" (when agricultural products from Ukraine are sold at a very low price - Author's note) will significantly affect sunflower exports in the new season.

Will oilseeds be marginal in the new season?

What are the prospects for the new season for oilseeds as a result?

Vladimir Petrichenko gave the following advice to farmers:

     It is necessary to sell the sunflower that lies. Alas, it will be about 19-20 rubles with VAT. Below the current level. The price will depend on the price of oil, sunflower stocks and products from new regions. Now there is a decrease in rapeseed - 24 rubles. With soybeans, the price can "dive" below 30 rubles. If the ruble falls, then prices in rubles may rise.

But at the same time, according to the expert, oilseeds will remain profitable.

     “If the cost of sunflower is 14-16, and the price, let’s say, is at the bottom, it’s still a plus for a farmer, when grains can go negative,” Vladimir Petrichenko said.

Mikhail Maltsev, Executive Director of the Oil and Fat Union of Russia, recalls that oilseeds remain leaders in terms of margin among other crops in crop production.

     — For example, according to the Ministry of Agriculture, the average profitability of oilseed production in the 2022/23 season will be at the level of 40%, while for grain crops it is two times lower. The most profitable crop is sunflower - up to 60%, he notes.

According to the expert, domestic producers of agricultural crops should focus on the domestic market and sell oilseeds to Russian processors.

     “We believe that after a slight increase in oilseeds exports in the 2022/23 season due to a record harvest and high carry-overs, next season the volume of exports of raw materials will decrease due to protective measures, while exports of finished products will increase,” Mikhail Maltsev said. – Demand for vegetable oils in the world market remains high, and we expect that during the next season we will be able to sell more than 6.5 million tons of domestic oils abroad.