Ukraine expects a record soybean harvest of up to 6 million tons in 2024, but concerns remain about the quality.

In 2024, Ukraine may receive the largest crop of soybeans in history. According to the latest estimate by IA "APK-Inform", soy production will reach about 5.9-6 million tons, which is 9% more than in 2023.

Despite the heat and lack of precipitation in July significantly reducing the yield of this crop, the increase in production is achieved due to a large sowing area, which exceeded previous expectations. Official data shows that the soybean planting area in Ukraine is 2.66 million hectares, which is 44% more than in 2023. The estimate by IA "APK-Inform" is 2.6 million hectares, which is 28% more than the previous year.

However, there is an open question whether the expected crop quantity will meet the necessary quality. Harvesting has slowed down due to uneven rains across a significant area of the country, and at the moment, just over a third of the projected harvest volume has been collected, with an average yield of 20.3 c/ha, whereas last year this indicator was 24.3 c/ha.

Farmers are actively offering the new soybean crop, fearing further price reductions and possibly rushing with the harvest. As a result, quality issues such as immature beans and low protein content remain relevant for both processors and exporters. It is expected that the quality and yield in general will improve due to active harvesting in western regions, where the adverse weather impact was less, and the yield potential exceeds the central regions.

"The expectation of a record soybean crop not only in Ukraine but also worldwide has led to a significant reduction in soybean prices, and the price prospects for Ukrainian soybeans in the new season also look pessimistic. Despite the increase in domestic processing, the market remains mostly export-oriented (about 57% of the crop will be shipped for export in the 2024/25 season) and is under pressure due to a large supply of soybeans from South America and the expected increase in soy production in North America," analysts note from IA "APK-Inform".

Amidst the growing demand for raw materials, the search for quality raw materials, and active export shipments, the decrease in purchase prices for Ukrainian soybeans slowed down in mid-September, and on the export side, a slight strengthening of prices within 5-10 USD/t - up to 380-385 USD/t CPT-port was even recorded.

Within a little over two weeks since the beginning of the new 2024/25 season, 93 thousand tons of soybeans have been exported from Ukraine, almost twice as much as in a similar period in the previous season.

Under favorable conditions, Ukrainian soybean exports in 2024/25 MY may increase to 3.5 million tons (+7%).

It is expected that in the new 2024/25 season, soybean processing will also have growth potential and may reach 2.1 million tons (+8% compared to 2023/24 MY). This is not only due to the expected increase in soy yield but also due to the growing demand for Ukrainian soybean meal and sunflower oil in external markets, including the EU market.