Unreliability of data on sunflower seed reserves in Kazakhstan and the impact of export duties on the market

Rewrite of the text, volume 1000 characters: The actual figures for the remains of sunflower seeds in Kazakhstan at the beginning of January 2024 diverged from the official statistics by an average of 33% (the difference was about 262 thousand tons). In general, over the past year, oilseed reserves in the country exceeded 30%.

Unreliability of official statistics, incl. by gross harvest, yield, crop residues, sown areas, etc. recognized both in the Bureau of National Statistics of the Republic of Kazakhstan and in the Ministry of Agriculture.

For example, with a monthly consumption of 110-120 thousand tons of oilseeds, Kazakhstan’s actual reserves will only be enough for 6 months, but, according to official statistics, it should be enough for 9 months. Thus, there will be no sunflower on the domestic market of Kazakhstan for almost 3 months, and this will lead to a sharp shortage and an immediate increase in prices for finished products.

“The export duty, in turn, makes it possible not only to stabilize the cost of sunflower oil on the domestic market, but also to go to the production of high-value products and provide high-protein feed to related industries, such as poultry and livestock.”

Thanks to the introduction of an export duty, the selling price for sunflower oil in Kazakhstan decreased by up to 36% in February 2024 (compared to the same period in 2023).