World prices for wheat have fallen: the main changes in the grain market for the reporting week.

In 2024, Tajikistan increased its imports of food: wheat, rice, dairy products, and meat due to the growth of domestic production. The import of wheat increased by 41 thousand tons to 1.1 million tons. The country's demand for wheat is over 2 million tons, of which 1 million tons is covered by domestic production. Tajikistan is the second largest importer of Kazakh wheat, increasing its purchases to 1.14 million tons.

The grain harvest forecast for 2024 is around 125 million tons, but there is a possibility of a decrease due to risks. Winter crops require high temperatures, and ice crust on the fields can damage plants.

Russia's grain exports have decreased to 47-48 million tons due to higher domestic prices and low reserves.

The antimonopoly authority has requested data on the production and sales of mayonnaise, oil, margarine, and salt. Companies with a dominant position in the market must comply with competition laws, including a ban on inflated prices. In case of violations, response measures may be applied.

The Hydrometeorological Center forecast: the probability of May frosts recurring in the center of Russia is 20-40%. In the south of the country, the risk is almost non-existent. The overall probability of frosts in May has decreased compared to the last century. Last year, the frosts were devastating, nearly 1 million hectares of crops were destroyed.

Production of sugar in India may decrease due to lack of rainfall, which could lead to sugar imports in 2024. The low productivity in Maharashtra and Karnataka raises concerns about export bans and the potential for India to become a net sugar importer. The production decrease could amount to 26.9 million tons, while domestic consumption is on the rise.

The grain agency of Tunisia has successfully held a tender to purchase 100,000 tons of soft and hard wheat of various origins.

Buildcom and Cargill have won the tender for the purchase of soft wheat, while Viterra, Casillo, and Amber have won for the purchase of hard wheat.

The deliveries will be made from March 1st to April 5th, 2025.

Starting from February 1, sunflower oil will increase from 1719 rubles to 17786 rubles per ton. The duty on meal will decrease by 882.9 rubles to 3888 rubles. Dmitry Ryalko, the Director of the Institute for Agrarian Market Conjuncture, warns about possible industry problems due to the decrease in oil prices and the increase in seed prices. Uncertainty in the global market also affects the situation.

Warm winter contributes to the improvement of winter crops, but the risk of crop failure remains high due to lack of precipitation. Experts warn about the unstable situation and possible threats to the harvest. It is important to increase the amount of rainfall to compensate for the drought.

The Ministry of Agriculture is creating an educational system for the rural sector: from agricultural classes to higher educational institutions. The head of the department, Oksana Loot, plans to fill the labor shortage. Mr. Kashin notes problems with living conditions in rural areas and improvements. It is important to develop rural areas and ensure their funding.

As of January 20, 2025, 288.6 thousand tons of grain are stored at 4 grain bases of the company TOO "Astyk koymalary". In 2024, the volume of grain acceptance increased to 411.7 thousand tons. Soft wheat of the 3rd grade formed the basis of the crop. A total of 346.4 thousand tons of grain and oilseeds were sent.

By 2024, Russia has strengthened its position in the global export of vegetable oils, increasing its share to 8.5%. The export of oils has grown by 8%, leading to an 89% increase in capacity utilization within the country.

The volume of exports of oilseeds has decreased by 37% due to the introduction of export duties.

A new solution has been proposed to increase the yield and quality of rice - using biostimulants based on fermented chitin and rice bran. The experiment showed an increase in the yield of RD69 rice varieties by 73% and HGD by 30%, a decrease in the level of fast-absorbing glucose, and an increase in the content of antioxidants.

It is recommended to use the product for biological rice cultivation.

The opinion of the Grain Producers Association of Canada on the deal of Bunge's acquisition of Viterra: the Minister of Transport's decision does not ensure competition protection, selling part of the shares will not solve the problem, potential losses for farmers up to $770 million per year, the deal will cause issues in the market and will require review. Bunge will buy Viterra for $6.2 billion in stocks and $2 billion in cash.

The sunflower oil market in Ukraine is stable.

Exporting companies were interested in the oil stocks, which could affect purchasing prices. Consumers continue to show moderate interest, with prices ranging from 21000 to 23500 UAH per tonne including delivery.