World wheat prices are fluctuating, Russian grain exports are increasing, and customs duties are decreasing.

During the past week, from August 2 to August 9, 2024, global wheat prices behaved differently. Prices for various types of wheat changed as follows:

• Price for winter wheat on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT, ZW) rose to 542.50 cents per bushel (+0.65%);
• Price for hard red winter wheat on the Kansas City Board of Trade (KCBT, KE) fell to 554.00 cents per bushel (-1.03%);
• Price for hard red spring wheat on the Minneapolis Grain Exchange (MGE, MWE) decreased to 589.75 cents per bushel (-0.88%);

Contract for corn on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT, ZC) dropped to 376.75 cents per bushel (-2.52%). The price of rice in Chicago (CBOT, ZR) decreased to $14.84 per hundredweight (-0.67%).

Russian grain export prices (FOB Black Sea):

• Prices for wheat fell to $214.20 per ton (-0.60%);
• Prices for barley rose to $182.50 per ton (+2.36%);
• Prices for corn decreased to $202.50 per ton (-1.51%);

Russian wheat price index, CPT Novorossiysk, rose to 16451 rubles per ton (+1.08%).

Internal purchasing prices for 4th class wheat with 12.5% protein content at port elevators of the Black and Azov Seas during this period were:

• Novorossiysk - 16700 (-200) rubles per ton
• Rostov-on-Don - 14500 (0) rubles per ton
• Taman - 16150 (+150) rubles per ton

Agricultural enterprises are preparing for the autumn sowing campaign. Sowing conditions remain difficult due to increased production costs and the end of preferential lending after the key rate hike by the Central Bank. Some enterprises may need to reduce sowing areas or change crop rotation in favor of more profitable crops, as reported by "Interfax" agency.

According to Rosstat data, the areas sown with grains and legumes decreased by 4% in 2024. Wheat sown areas decreased by 4.2% compared to 2023. Barley areas decreased by 12.9%.

The National Commodity Exchange is preparing to sell wheat from the intervention fund to Central Federal District and Volga Region flour mills. Wheat purchased during the period from 2014 to 2016 and from 2022 to 2024 will be sold at auctions. Earlier, the Russian government approved the sale of up to 500 thousand tons of wheat from the federal intervention fund this year.

Since the beginning of 2024, the export of grain processing products from Russia has exceeded 1.3 million tons, which is 42% more than in the same period of 2023. According to Rosselkhoznadzor, there is a significant increase in the export of wheat flour, wheat groats, oat flakes, and oat groats.

Russia and China may start using mutual trade schemes. The conclusion of two agricultural deals is expected as early as this autumn. Thus, Moscow and Beijing are trying to limit the use of banking systems controlled by the United States.

Customs duties on wheat will be reduced again starting August 14, 2024; duties on barley will remain zero, while duties on corn will increase for the first time since April.

Belarus: Over 5.8 million tons of new grain harvest have been threshed. 84% of the areas have been harvested.

Kazakhstan: There are no plans to introduce export duties on grain yet. The government believes that restricting wheat exports could lead to the loss of traditional markets.

Ukraine: Losses of late agricultural crops due to drought may range from 10 to 15%. Crops like sunflower, corn, and sugar beet will suffer the most.

A total of 27.3 million tons of grain have been harvested, including 20.9 million tons of wheat and 5.2 million tons of barley. Harvesting of early grain and legume crops has been completed at enterprises in eight regions.