Changes in prices on the world crop market

On Thursday, December 28, 2023, Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) wheat futures rose due to increased risks in the Black Sea. As a result of the trading day, March soft winter wheat futures on the CBOT rose to $232.03 per ton, March hard winter wheat futures on the KCBT exchange in Kansas City reached $236.53 per ton, and March hard spring wheat futures on the MGE in Minneapolis reached $266.57 per ton.

Chicago wheat futures rose Thursday after a Panamanian ship struck a mine in the Black Sea. The incident highlights ongoing security risks along the world's main grain trade route. However, corn and soybean futures fell due to forecasts of rain in South America, which could help drought-stricken crops in Brazil.

The most active March wheat contract on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange ended up 8-1/2 cents, or 1.4%, at $6.31-1/2 a bushel.

On Wednesday, a bulk carrier heading to a port on the Danube to load grain hit a mine in the Black Sea. Two crew members were wounded as a result, Ukrainian officials said Thursday. News of the ship's explosion was a reminder of the risks to supply security in the region. It is worth noting that the Chicago wheat market also responded with growth after reports of damage to a Russian warship in Crimea as a result of a Ukrainian strike.

Traders point out that the market reaction to such incidents is usually short-term, as disruptions to maritime supplies are minor, including the grain corridor established by Kiev in the Black Sea.

In addition, wheat market participants are monitoring the results of the Egyptian tender, which is an indicator of demand in the international market. On Thursday evening, it became known that Egypt's Government Buying Authority (GASC) had canceled an international wheat tender without making any purchases. Traders said prices were too high.

Among other crops, March CBOT corn fell 2-1/4 cents to $4.74-1/4 a bushel and March soybeans fell 8-1/2 cents to $13.12 a bushel.

Weather forecasts predict uneven rainfall in drought-stricken central and northern regions of Brazil over the next week. Rain is expected throughout the country in early January.

About one-third of Brazil's corn and soybean crops could be affected by excess rainfall, according to the Commodity Weather Group. However, this figure is expected to drop to 15-20% next week.

At the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) on Thursday, contract prices for December delivery were as follows:
- Wheat (March 2023) - $232.03 per ton (RUB 21,280/t) - an increase of 1.36%;
- Corn (March 2023) - $186.71 per ton (17,120 rubles/t) - a decrease of 0.47%;
- Soybeans (March 2023) - $482.07 per ton (44,210 rubles/t) - a decrease of 0.64%;
- Rice January (March 2023) - $855.22 per ton (RUB 78,430/t) - decrease by 0.43%;
- Rapeseed (ICE, March 2023) - 660.10 CAD/t (45,670 RUB/t) - a decrease of 1.36%.

The French wheat market showed slight growth on Thursday. March quotes for milling wheat on the Paris Matif exchange reached €221.75 per ton (in dollar equivalent - $246.21). March corn quotes dropped to €198.75 per ton (in dollar equivalent - $220.67).

On the Matif exchange in Paris on Thursday, closing quotes for December and March contracts were:
- Flour wheat (December 2023) - $246.21 per ton (22,580 rubles/t) - an increase of 0.78%;
- Corn (March 2023) - $220.67 per ton (20,240 rubles/t) - an increase of 0.42%;
- Sunflower (Jan on the SAFEX exchange) - 9284.00 ZAR/t (46040 rub./t) - a decrease of 0.77%;
- Sunflower oil (December Rotterdam, bulk FOB) - $950.00 per ton (87,120 rub./t) - no changes.

Exchange rates as of 12/28/2023:
- 91.7051 rub. = US dollar;
- 101.3451 rub. = euro;
- 69.1696 rub. = Canadian dollar;
- 49.5934 rub. = 10 South African rand.