Inflation is slowing down: prices for vegetables and fruits are decreasing, experts predict further decline by the end of the year.

According to the information from Rosstat, from March 12 to 18, 2024, prices for cucumbers dropped by 8%, and since the beginning of the month, by 15.32%. The overall decrease in prices for fruits and vegetables was 1.3%. Bananas became cheaper by 0.4%, beets became more expensive by 1.6%, tomatoes and carrots by 1%, while cabbage, onions, apples, and potatoes slightly decreased in price. Prices for chicken eggs have been decreasing for the fourth consecutive week: from March 12 to 18, their prices dropped by 0.7%, and since the beginning of the year, by 4.15%. Prices for chicken meat also fell by 0.17% for the week and by 3.93% since the beginning of the year. According to the report from the Ministry of Economic Development about the current price situation, annual inflation in Russia decreased to 7.58% from March 12 to 18, compared to 7.6% the previous week. During the week from March 12 to 18, prices in the consumer market increased by 0.06%, leading to a reduction in the annual price growth. The Ministry also reported that prices for food products decreased by 0.12%, while prices for food items decreased by 0.01%. Olga Belenkaya, the head of the macroeconomic analysis department at Finam Group, stated that the inflation rate sharply slowed down since the beginning of March - in the first 18 days of March, inflation was only 0.11%. This is mainly due to a decrease in prices for fruits and vegetables (one of the most volatile components) and for food products that significantly increased in price last year (for example, eggs, chicken meat, pork). In the non-food segment, the low price growth is associated with the continued decline in prices for electronics and household appliances. According to Finam's estimates, inflation in March may be slightly over 0.4% on a monthly basis and 7.7% annually. In the following months, annual inflation will increase due to the low base from last spring, reaching its peak in the second quarter (but slightly below 8% on an annual basis), and then will start decreasing from August and by the end of the year will be 5-5.5%. A representative from the analytical department of Own Bank emphasized that the pace of price growth slowed down from autumn indicators (11.5%) to 6%, but still remains above the target value of 4-4.5%. Inflation expectations of the population have decreased but remain relatively high. It is expected that the Bank of Russia will continue to pursue a tight monetary policy and will not rush to lower the key rate. The specialist noted that factors that continue to impact inflation are high consumer demand supported by wage growth, and increased enterprise costs. He believes that with reduced consumer lending, the price growth in the non-food sector will decrease. Thus, according to forecasts, inflation will decrease in the second and third quarters and by the end of the year will be 5-5.5%.