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From September 10 to 16 of the current year, there was an increase in prices by 0.1%. As for the food sector, prices here grew by 0.06%. The downward trend in prices for fruits and vegetables continues, with a decrease of 1.5%. Other food products, on the whole, have become more expensive by 0.18%, which is a slight increase compared to the previous week (0.19%). These are the results of the review conducted by the Ministry of Economic Development on the current price situation.
From the beginning of the year until September 16, prices have risen by 5.46%. In annual terms (compared to the same period of the previous year), there has been an increase of 8.74%. Regarding the food sector, prices have risen by 4.25% and 9.33% respectively.
It is worth noting the ongoing downward trend in apple prices (a 2% decrease in a week). There has also been an accelerated decline in prices for vegetables such as "borscht set" and potatoes. According to the Ministry of Economic Development, the price of potatoes from September 10 to 16 dropped by 4.33%, carrots became cheaper by 4.52%, onions decreased by 2.35%, and the price of cabbage fell by 6.81%. At the same time, cucumber prices increased by 1.86%, and tomatoes by 0.86%. It is also important to note the accelerated decline in prices for chicken meat (-0.29% versus -0.24%) and eggs (-0.2% versus -0.02%), as well as for sugar (-1% versus -0.58%).
A September survey conducted on behalf of the Bank of Russia from September 2 to 12 showed a decrease in public inflation expectations. In a year, Russians expect a price increase of 12.5%, which is lower than the August figure (12.9%). The assessment of actual inflation perceived by people has decreased to 14.4% from 15% in August. According to the survey results, the decrease in cost of living expectations is observed in the group of people with savings (from 11.5% to 11.2%) and without savings (from 13.9% to 13.3%). The estimation of observed inflation by people without savings decreased from 16.1% to 15.6%, and for those with savings, from 13.5% to 12.9%.
The Ministry of Economic Development expects a slowdown in the inflation rate to 8.1% in annual terms by the end of September, compared to 9.05% in August. According to the data referenced by the newspaper "Vedomosti," a slowdown in price growth is expected in all categories, including the food sector, where an 8.1% year-on-year price increase is expected by the end of September, which is a positive forecast compared to 9.72% in August.
On September 13, the Central Bank raised the key rate from 18% to 19%. The regulator noted that in order to achieve price stability and reduce inflation expectations, it is necessary to further tighten monetary policy to return inflation to the target level by 2025. The Central Bank press release mentions a possible increase in the key rate at the nearest meeting. The Central Bank's information-analytical commentary specifies that the annual inflation in 2024 will likely exceed the July forecast range of 6.5-7%. Considering the current monetary policy, a decrease in annual inflation to 4-4.5% is forecasted in 2025, and then it will stabilize around 4%.
