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The export potential for barley has been realized by 60% in just three months of the current season 2024/25, limiting the available crop volumes and supporting prices. Wheat prices remain on an upward trend due to the high volatility of the ruble-to-dollar exchange rate. Sunflower oil also continues to rise in ports, exceeding the mark of 100,000 rubles per ton with VAT, which contributes to the increase in seed prices.
Wheat Market
On a global scale
Factors contributing to price growth:
- Active demand at tender: Algeria and Saudi Arabia have planned to purchase wheat totaling 850-900 thousand tons in November-December 2024 at a price of FOB $233-235 per ton.
- Possible disruptions in grain exports from Ukraine.
Factors contributing to price decline:
- Lack of significant factors.
On the Russian market
Factors contributing to price growth:
- Reduction of official crop forecasts by the Russian Ministry of Agriculture to 130 million tons for all grains, including 83 million tons of wheat.
- High volatility of the ruble-to-dollar exchange rate - rising to 97 rubles in a week and then decreasing to 95 rubles.
- Issues with sowing winter wheat due to lack of soil moisture and a limited sowing window.
Factors contributing to price decline:
- Delay in the introduction of an increased duty may lower current prices in ports, but a correction is expected in a few weeks.
Summary:
FOB wheat prices sharply increased during the current week, but were corrected by the introduction of duties and information about a slowdown in shipments. Grain harvest and export potential in Russia have decreased, leading to record wheat export volumes in the first three months of the current 2024/25 season. Further duty hikes and potential increases in global wheat prices are expected. Additionally, the outlook for the dollar exchange rate remains uncertain. Current SRT prices are close to maximum values, but a future decrease in ruble quotes is possible.
Barley Market
On a global scale
Factors contributing to price growth:
- Active barley purchases in the Black Sea region at the beginning of the season led to a reduction in export volumes available from Russia and Ukraine.
Factors contributing to price decline:
- Lack of significant factors.
On the Russian market
Factors contributing to price growth:
- Realization of export potential in the first three months of the current season is 60%, limiting available export volumes until the end of the season.
- High volatility of the ruble-to-dollar exchange rate - rising to 97 rubles in a week and then decreasing to 95 rubles.
- Issues with sowing winter wheat due to lack of soil moisture and a limited sowing window.
Factors contributing to price decline:
- Lack of significant factors.
Summary:
Barley prices have sharply risen, and the export potential from Russia is significantly limited in the coming months. This situation may support prices at all levels - from FOB to domestic quotes by regions. However, potential duty increases and regulatory impacts should be taken into account.
Corn Market
On a global scale
Factors contributing to price growth:
- A 20-30% reduction in rainfall in major producing states of Brazil poses risks to the corn crop at the initial planting stage.
- Possible disruptions in grain exports from Ukraine.
Factors contributing to price decline:
- Lack of significant factors.
On the Russian market
Factors contributing to price growth:
- Reduced harvest forecasts create demand in the domestic market.
- High volatility of the ruble-to-dollar exchange rate - rising to 97 rubles in a week and then decreasing to 95 rubles.
Factors contributing to price decline:
- Lack of significant factors.
Summary:
Corn sales in the current season will focus on the domestic market, with only partial exports due to reduced export potential. FOB "small water" and Caspian (Astrakhan) remain the most liquid bases, partly due to increased demand from Iran. With the rise in Ukrainian corn prices, support for prices in the Rostov-on-Don SRT can be expected in the coming weeks.
Sunflower Market
Factors contributing to price growth:
- Increased demand for sunflower oil in the EU due to reduced domestic harvest and palm oil imports.
- Support for the palm oil segment, which is currently trading at a premium to sunflower oil.
Factors contributing to price decline:
- Lack of significant factors.
On the Russian market
Factors contributing to price growth:
- Rising world and FOB Russia vegetable oil prices along with a ruble depreciation have increased SRT purchase prices.
- High volatility of the ruble-to-dollar exchange rate - rising to 97 rubles in a week and then decreasing to 95 rubles.
Factors contributing to price decline:
- Expected introduction of an export duty on sunflower oil in November, with a forecasted price of 2500-3000 rubles per ton.
Summary:
Sunflower oil prices in ports have exceeded 100,000 rubles per ton with VAT. The price increase was due to the rising dollar exchange rate and FOB export prices. However, the expected introduction of duties from November may cool off prices. Sunflower prices on the domestic market continue to rise, but raw material supply is increasing, boosting liquidity in the regions. The rise in meal prices also supports the overall prices.
Soy Market
