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The analytical center "Rusagrotrans" has lowered the forecast for wheat exports in the current season from 42 million tons to 40-41 million tons (including exports to EAEU countries). Of this volume, the quota, which has been in effect since mid-February and amounts to 10.6 million tons, will only be used at 66%, which means that no more than 7 million tons will be shipped. This forecast will be realized if the current export pace is maintained.
This export estimate is significantly lower than the forecasts of global analytical centers, such as the USDA, which in its February report predicted wheat exports from Russia at the level of 45.5 million tons. "Rusagrotrans" points out that even considering the greater export potential of countries like Australia and Argentina, replacing a difference of 5-5.5 million tons will be difficult in the next four months, especially given the sharp decrease in export potential from EU countries.
According to the latest data, around 1.95 million tons of wheat were exported in February, which is a record low for the past five years. Analysts note that in March, the decline in exports will continue, as the volume of orders in deep-water ports, which usually account for about 80% of total exports, is less than 1 million tons. At the moment, the potential for March deliveries is estimated in the range of 1.5-1.6 million tons, which will be the lowest indicator in the past four years.
The main reasons for the decrease in exports are negative profitability for exporters against high domestic prices and a decline in quotations on the international wheat market. Approximately 34.2 million tons of wheat have been exported from July to February.
