According to traders, the latest wheat stocks in Australia towards the end of the current period may reach 8 million tons due to reduced shipments to China and increased competition in the international market from Russian grain producers. From October to March next year, Australia has only shipped 546 thousand tons of wheat to China compared to 2.9 million tons the year before, according to Reuters.
If the current pace of exports is maintained, there may be a need for a forced wheat sell-off in Australia to free up warehouse space before the new harvest, which will put pressure on prices. Experts estimate that the cost of grain could drop to 300 Australian dollars ($194) per ton compared to the current range of 325-350 Australian dollars.
It is forecasted that the wheat harvest in Australia in 2025 will range from 28 to 34 million tons, which is lower than last year but exceeds the average for the past 10 years.