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Prices for wheat are rising due to possible supply cuts from the Black Sea region, as well as attacks and port problems.
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Prices for wheat are rising due to possible supply cuts from the Black Sea region, as well as attacks and port problems.

Wheat prices are rising due to instability in the Black Sea region. Russia has exited the deal, Ukrainian ports are facing problems. Ships are at anchor, and insurers are revising their policies. In the USA, there are crop issues because of drought.

27 March 2025 27 March 2025

Since mid-February, wheat prices continue to rise, causing concern over possible supply reductions from the Black Sea region. Chicago wheat futures have recently risen by 2.6%, reaching $7.7725 per bushel.

Due to Russia's exit from the grain deal, wheat prices continue to rise. The intensity of the increase heightened after reports of attacks in the Odessa region, according to Financial Times data published on Interfax.

In addition to the grain deal situation, price fluctuations are also influenced by instability in the western part of the Black Sea basin. By the end of July, problems emerged not only with the operation of major Ukrainian ports (Odessa, Nikolaev) but also with ports in the Danube Delta (Reni), which were used for grain exports by both sea and river to Romania.

Data from the analytical company MarineTraffic, based on vessel tracking, shows that around 29 vessels, including chemical tankers, have suspended operations in Izmail. Three more ships are also anchored along the waterway leading to the Reni-Odessa terminal, according to Reuters.

The preliminary grain agreement included insurance policies for military risks related to Ukrainian ports. However, according to insurance industry sources, this practice has been suspended. Furthermore, some insurers are considering whether to continue providing insurance coverage for ports on the Danube.

Together, Russia and Ukraine account for about 30% of global wheat shipments.

It is also worth noting that dry weather in some key agricultural areas in the United States has led to a deterioration in grain crop forecasts in the country, according to Trading Economics data.

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