Wheat prices are fluctuating following the USDA report: corn and soybean harvest is down, while wheat production remains stable.

Last week, prices for Russian wheat with 12.5% protein and delivery in November decreased by $1 to $226/ton FOB. Prices for December delivery also dropped by $2 to $230/ton FOB. According to the analytical center "Rusagrotrans", French wheat became cheaper by $4 to $238/ton, while German and American wheat became more expensive by $1 - $250/ton and $258/ton respectively.

There were no significant fluctuations on the wheat futures market last week, but the USDA report published on Friday influenced the market as crop estimates for corn and soybeans in the U.S. for the 2024/25 season were revised lower than expected. According to the report, the corn forecast was reduced from 386.18 million tons to 384.64 million tons, and the soybean forecast decreased from 124.7 million tons to 121.42 million tons.

Forecasts for wheat production were also lowered in Argentina (from 18 million tons to 17.5 million tons), Brazil (from 9 million tons to 8.5 million tons), and the EU (from 123 million tons to 122.6 million tons). At the same time, the forecast for wheat production in Kazakhstan was significantly increased from 16 million tons to 18 million tons. However, the overall forecast for global wheat production remained unchanged at 794.7 million tons compared to the previous forecast of 794.1 million tons.

Last week, prices for wheat with 12.5% protein at deep-water ports ranged from 17.3 to 17.6 thousand rubles/ton excluding VAT, which is almost in line with the levels of the previous week. Prices for wheat with delivery on shallow water increased by 500 rubles to 16.2 thousand rubles/ton. Analysts note that last year prices were 14.5 thousand rubles/ton and 12.15 thousand rubles/ton respectively. Prices CPT Novorossiysk with delivery by railway decreased by 200 rubles to 17.7-18.3 thousand rubles/ton. The volume of grain shipment orders at deep-water ports as of November 7 amounts to 3.76 million tons, including 3.61 million tons of wheat. The forecast for wheat exports in November remains the same — 4.55 million tons compared to 3.49 million tons in November of last year.

Internal prices for 4th class wheat in the southern part of the country increased by 200 rubles and reached 15.4-15.6 thousand rubles/ton (excluding VAT, EXW elevator). Prices in central regions rose by 100 rubles to 14.8-15.2 thousand rubles/ton, while in the Volga region, prices increased by 300 rubles to 14.4-14.8 thousand rubles/ton. In Siberia, prices for purchasing 3rd class wheat range from 10 to 15 thousand rubles/ton (excluding VAT, EXW elevator) depending on the region. The significant price variation is due to substantial differences in grain quality across regions and local storage capabilities of agricultural producers.